What are Poland’s real plans in the Ukrainian conflict?
Fulvio Beltrami & Vladimir Volcic
Poland has so far been Kiev regime’s one of the most loyal allies. It has allowed the transit of NATO weapons, becoming the main logistical hub of Western support for the Ukrainian military; it has become the main repair center for NATO equipment given to Ukraine that was faulty or damaged in combat; welcomed 9.5 million Ukrainian refugees and provided them with dignified assistance. For almost a year it allowed the importation of wheat and other cereals across its borders, creating serious problems for national agricultural production; he took the defense of Kiev and promoted the Ukrainian instances at NATO and the European Union; first sent Leopard 2s as well as a substantial amount of other heavy weapons; around 10,000 Polish soldiers are fighting in Ukraine as mercenaries.
All this support is not given out of ideological affinities to the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev but out of fear of a possible imperialist expansionism of Russia. The memory of almost a million Poles killed in Ukraine and Poland by the German Nazis with the support of Bandera’s Ukrainian Nazis between 1941 and 1944 is alive as if it was yesterday; just as the memory of the dark period of subjection to the USSR is alive. The Solidarnosh movement, supported by the Vatican and by St. John Paul II (Karol Wojtyla) was the first popular anti-Russian movement in the Warsaw Pact countries that preceded the collapse of the Soviet empire. Both Ukrainians and Russians are detested by Poles and considered enemies, but of the two evils Poland has chosen the lesser evil: Kiev.
For months there have been rumors of a possible involvement of Poland in the Ukrainian conflict. Rumors also taken into serious consideration by the Kremlin. Theoretically the Polish army could represent the possibility for NATO to continue the war against Russia now that the Ukrainian army is dissolving. There is talk of a military coalition of the Baltic countries (Poland, Estonia, Lithuania Latvia) under the NATO umbrella to fight Russia in Ukraine. There is also talk of a Polish invasion of Belarus aimed at opening a second front. The concentration of Polish army troops on the Belarusian borders seems to validate the fear.
However Poland is highly unlikely to go to war against Russia for a variety of reasons. First of all, friction between Warsaw and Kiev has grown in recent weeks. The Polish media are distancing themselves from the Ukrainian regime by highlighting the high degree of corruption and the presence of the neo-Nazi current. The Mysl Polska newspaper two days ago made a harsh attack on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Oleksandrovytch Zelensky calling him a “completely ignorant comedian in politics who makes mistakes after mistakes”. Mysl Plska goes further by stating that Zelensky is only formally the President of Ukraine but that other characters are in charge in the country.
One of the main failures attributed to Zelensky by Polish public opinion is his failure to comply with the conflict resolution agreements proposed in March 2022 by Russia. The Poles are convinced that the peace brokered by Turkey one month after the start of the conflict was excellent and could avoid the destruction of Ukraine and the associated dangers to Poland’s national security. However, the Polish media are silent on the fact that the failed peace agreement of March 2022 is not attributable to Zelensky but to the United States and Great Britain convinced that by supporting Ukraine and continuing the conflict they would have inflicted a serious blow on Russia, causing economic collapse and the political and social implosion of the Russian Bear.
Despite the Polish government’s formal support for the Kiev regime, lately the national media have put emphasis on the Volinja massacres by stating that at the right time Kiev will pay for these massacres perpetuated by the OUN-UPA Nazi gangs of Stepan Bandera and Roman Šukhevic to which the he current Ukrainian regime remakes itself ideologically by considering them national heroes.
The massacres of Poles in Volinja and Eastern Galicia were carried out in German-occupied Poland by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) with the support of parts of the local Ukrainian population against the Polish minority in Volinja, Eastern Galicia, parts of Polesia and the region of Lublin from 1943 to 1945. The peak of the massacres took place in July and August 1943. The massacres were exceptionally brutal, mainly affecting women and children. The UPA’s actions resulted in 50,000 to 100,000 deaths. Other victims of the massacres included several hundred Jews, Russians, Czechs, Georgians and Ukrainians who were part of Polish families or opposed the UPA and sabotaged the massacres by hiding Polish fugitives.
After supporting and facilitating the export of Ukrainian cereals through Poland, Warsaw has now decreed a block on imports at the same time as the end of the “grain agreements” in Odessa, putting Ukraine in serious difficulty. A mandatory decision taken by the Polish government to avoid a peasant uprising. The Polish agricultural economy was seriously damaged by these tax-exempt imports. Ukrainian grains flooded local markets and significantly reduced Polish grain exports to Western Europe.
The chances of Poland entering into conflict with Russia seem minimal not so much due to the grudges and hatred that the Poles reserve for the Russians but due to calculations of convenience and balance of power. Warsaw understands well that a phantom aggression by the coalition of the Baltic countries (at the moment more on paper than in reality) would mean a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. Warsaw also knows that neither NATO nor the US would be able to hold the fight at this moment and the battleground would extend into Polish territory. It is also aware that in any confrontation Polish soldiers would become cannon fodder like their Ukrainian neighbors as American, German, Italian, British or Belgian soldiers would hesitate to intervene in the conflict, hoping that the Baltic countries would be sufficient to defeat the Russia.
It is true that the Polish government has long been claiming territories in Belarus where there is a large presence of the Polish minority: officially 288,000 people according to the 2019 census although the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland claims that the number goes up to 1,100 .000. Poles form the second largest ethnic minority in the country after Russians, with about 3.1% of the total population. Most Poles live in the western regions, of which 223,119 in Grodno oblast. Poles are the majority in and around Sapotskin, as well as in the Voranava district. The largest Polish organization in Belarus is the Union of Poles in Belarus (Związek Polaków na Białorusi), with over 20,000 members.
However, the annexation of the Grodno, Voranaa and Sapotskin Oblasts to Poland would automatically mean going to war with Russia. This is a certainty clarified by Russian President Vladimir Putin himself who declared three days ago: “Unleashing aggression against Belarus will mean attacking Russia. We will respond to this by any means at our disposal.”
Poland stands to gain most in an end to the conflict and peace that will necessarily divide Ukraine in two by weakening the Kiev regime that could be overthrown by the Ukrainian population itself. Such a scenario would allow the annexation of the Ukrainian territories where the Polish minority is present: the city of Lviv and the oblasts of Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Ternopil, Zakarpattia, Zhytomyr.
The annexation of these territories would be tolerated by Washington and Brussels which would not raise objections to the Polish claim to the “Kresy Wschodnie” (historical, ancestral territories) of Ukraine. The annexation would not create the risk of a conflict with Russia. Also three days ago, President Putin declared that Moscow will not get involved if Kiev decides to thank Poland by giving it its western territories. The dismemberment of Ukraine, considerably reducing its territory and the associated polonization of the western Ukrainian oblasts suits everyone: NATO, the United States, Russia.
The reactionary (but not Nazi-fascist) government of the Polska Szlachta (the historical Polish aristocracy that exercised wide influence in the Kingdom of Poland, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and in the Polish-Luthuanian Commonwealth from 1333 to 1772) through the Peace in Ukraine has the possibility of becoming the pivot of NATO’s defense against Russia in the forthcoming Second Cold War, increasing its political, military and economic power over the European Union by becoming the spearhead of European liberal-Euro-Atlantic ideology. After all, the Biden Administration has made it clear that the best European allies of the United States to contain Russia are: Great Britain and Poland.
Meanwhile, talks are taking place in Ankara between Russia and the United States requested by Washington. The news was confirmed by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. It has not been disclosed what is being discussed. However in the face of the imminent collapse of Ukraine it is likely that Washington and Moscow are discussing the dismemberment of Ukraine. No one has pity for the vanquished.
