Sudan. Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok resigns as US-tolerated chaos and violence reigns in the country.
Hamdok’s resignation opens up an uncertain future for Sudan. The Sudanese crisis is part of a wider regional crisis dictated by the civil war in Ethiopia and the political crisis in Somalia which threatens to spark another civil war in the Horn of Africa.
For this reason, the Sudanese Generals are considered indispensable by the United States and the West in general. Thanks to this support Ibn Auf, Al Burhan and Hemetti have excellent chances to impose their will and take control of the country. Civilian casualties and the Sudanese people’s desire for real democracy matter little. What matters are the logic of Real Politik.
“I have decided to return responsibility and announce my resignation as prime minister to give another man or woman from this noble country the opportunity to make the transition to democracy. My efforts to bridge the growing gap of misunderstanding and resolve the disputes between the various political forces have failed.
Despite everything that has been done to bring about the desired and necessary agreement to fulfil our promise to the citizens of democracy, security, peace, justice and an end to bloodshed, this has not happened. The political stalemate in Sudan could turn into a full-blown crisis and damage the country’s already battered economy.
I have tried as much as possible to prevent our country from sliding into disaster. Now, our nation is going through a dangerous tipping point that could threaten its survival unless urgently rectified. A round table is needed to agree on a new national charter and to draw a road map capable of completing Sudan’s transition towards democracy ”.
These are the salient parts of the speech delivered on state TV by Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok late yesterday evening, Sunday, January 2, 2022. The resignation of the prime minister came just hours after Sudanese security forces violently dispersed thousands of protesters protesting the coup, killing at least three people, according to the Central Committee of Sudanese Doctors (CCSD).
The medical group, which is part of the pro-democracy movement, said one of the victims was “violently” hit in the head while participating in a protest march in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum. A second person was shot in the chest in the twin city of Khartoum, Omdurman and dozens of protesters were injured.
The street protests occurred despite the tightening of security and the blockade of bridges and roads in Khartoum and Omdurman. Internet connections were also cut before the protests, according to NetBlocs association. Sunday’s deaths brought the death toll among protesters after the military takeover to at least 60, according to CCSD. Hundreds were also injured.
The demonstration that took place a few hours before Hamdok’s resignation followed the same script of violence and blood as the demonstration on Thursday 30 December. “The security forces had given the order to shoot. It was a bloodbath. At least seven dead. The agents fired tear gas and used grenades to disperse the crowd, while the militias hit with live bullets, exploded at eye level, with the clear aim of killing.
Before the protests, the security forces closed the bridges, the main roads leading to the airport and to the army headquarters. All the connecting routes between Khartoum and the twin cities Bahri and Omdurman, across the Nile, have been cut off. Despite the measures prepared by the Sovereign Council, some demonstrators managed to reach the southern gates of the presidential palace, but were rejected by the security forces with the launch of tear gas and live ammunition. “, Tells us the director of Italian media and on her information site dedicated to Africa: Focus On Africa (@ FocusonafricaIt), Antonella Napoli (@AntonellaNapoli) who is following the Sudanese crisis. Antonella has already been to Sudan twice after the coup and is the author of various articles and analyses published in the Italian media and on her information web site.
The announcement throws Sudan’s future into uncertainty, three years after an uprising that led to the overthrow of long-time leader Omar al-Bashir. An economist and former United Nations official widely respected by the international community, Hamdok became prime minister in 2019 under a power-sharing agreement that promised multi-party elections in 2023.
But civilian-military ties broke down when the army refused to relinquish power and Hamdok was removed and placed under house arrest on 25 October. He was reinstated on November 21 in an agreement that required an independent technocratic government under military supervision.
However, the Sudanese democratic movement denounced that agreement, insisting that power be shifted to a fully civilized government and initiating a series of popular protests. The pro-democracy movement has rejected any attempt at mediation and agreements between Hamdok and the Sudanese coup generals. Political polarization prevented the Premier from appointing a new government forcing him to resign.
Following Hamdok’s resignation, the United States urged Sudan leaders to “put aside differences, find consensus and ensure the maintenance of civilian government”. In a Twitter statement, the US State Department also called for the appointment of the next prime minister and cabinet “in line with the 2019 constitutional declaration to achieve the goals of freedom, peace and justice of the people.”
The American statements have been taken with many reservations by the pro-democratic movement and the Sudanese demonstrators. There is a widespread belief among the population that the United States promoted the October coup carried out by General Fattah Al Burhan. A serious accusation to be proven. Many regional observers, while stressing that there are not enough elements at the moment to affirm that the October coup has a precise American origin, affirm that the Biden administration had been informed in advance by General Al Burhan and has let it go.
Three days before the coup, the United States was aware of General Al Burhan’s plans and did not react. This is what journalists Robbie Gramer and Colum Lynch of the prestigious information site Foreign Policy say. In an investigative article, Gramer and Lynch recount the unpublished background of the visit to Khartoum of Jeffrey Feltman, US President Joe Biden’s special envoy for the Horn of Africa. A visit that took place on Friday 22 October. Feltman left the Sudanese capital on Sunday 24th. The coup d’état struck the next day.
“Feltman was in Khartoum to meet the main Sudanese power players in an attempt to support the shaky transitional government and try to salvage the irregular path to democracy. During his time in Khartoum, Feltman met with Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, the country’s top civilian leader, as well as Sudan’s top military leader, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the deputy chairman of the country’s Transitional Military Council. , Mohamed Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagalo, leader of a powerful militia group called Rapid Support Forces. During a meeting, the two military leaders told Feltman that they wanted Hamdok to dissolve the cabinet and appoint new ministers, citing a litany of failures by Sudan’s civil leadership, according to diplomatic sources close to the exchange ” Gramer informs.
According to Lynch, during the meeting Feltman warned military leaders against causing disruptions in the democratic transition. The US special envoy was perfectly aware of the rumors of a takeover with weapons before going to the airport on Sunday to leave the country, but he felt sure that the coup would not happen. Yet, after Feltman’s departure, Burhan made the move of him.
Also according to various regional observers, it was the US State Department that suggested to General Al Burhan to put Hamdok back in the post of prime minister in order to give credibility to a new government controlled by the military.
Abdalla Hamdok, by resigning, confirms his political failure. Hamdok had come to the post of Premier through a compromise with the armed forces rejected by the Sudanese revolutionary movement that started the Sudanese Spring in December 2018. The Sudanese revolution brought the despotic regime of Omar Hassan Ahmad Al-Bashir to the collapse. power on 30 June 1989 thanks to a coup supported by Hassan al-Turabi, leader of the Islamic National Front.
Generals who had supported the regime for 30 years on 11 April 2019 arrested Al-Bashir and formed the Transitional Military Council led by First Vice President and Minister of Defense, Lieutenant General Ahmed Awad Ibn Auf, General Fattah Al Burhan and the Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (called Hemetti).
General Dagalo is the leader of the bloody paramilitary group RSF (Rapid Sudan Forces) formed by the Arab Jangweed militias used by Al-Bashir to carry out a genocide in Darfur in the late 1990s with the aim of putting down the armed rebellion against the regime of Khartoum. The arrests of the dictator were a cunning move by the Generals to save the regime by getting rid of the cumbersome leader on whom the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for crimes against humanity committed in Darfur hung.
For nearly three months, Bashir’s Generals attempted to impose the Transitional Military Council as the sole post-dictatorship Sudanese authority. The resolve of the Sudanese revolutionaries, who continued the protests in the streets despite the violent repression of the Generals, prevented the plan from being implemented by forcing the army to form (on July 17, 2019) a transitional government (known as the Sovereign Council) together with the Forces of the Freedom and Change, the political movement that led the revolution.
Also al at the time it was suspected that the United States had decided to support the Sudanese generals considered by the White House to be an embarrassing political force but the only one capable of avoiding chaos in Sudan after the fall of the regime. The idea of Washington strategists was to use the Sudanese armed forces to ensure a democratic transition and prevent Sudan from sinking into violence and civil war.
In American plans, the alliance (unwanted by the Sudanese population) between the Generals and the Forces of Freedom and Change would have guaranteed a progressive replacement of the military with civilians. To this end, then President Donald Trump had exerted strong pressure on the Generals to accept the appointment of Hamdok as prime minister.
During his almost 3 years of mandate, Hamdok was not able to reduce the excessive power of the military or to direct the civilian component of the transitional government on the path of good governance. Several of his ministers have dedicated themselves to corruption demonstrating a total inability to manage the country which is literally in a situation of economic collapse. Corruption and managerial inability have pushed the military to take the situation back in hand by implementing the coup last October.
A risky move made possible only thanks to the tacit consent of President Joe Biden and popular support for the Generals due to the failure of the civilian component of the transitional government. The Western media places great emphasis on the current popular opposition, following pre-established “romantic” patterns typical of our culture. The lacuna lies in not understanding that the current popular movement against the military junta does not have the same strength as the revolutionary movement of 2018–2019. An important slice of the Sudanese population now supports the Generals, considered the only ones capable of restoring order and legality in the country in view of its democratic transformation.
“What we have seen in the last two months since the coup in Sudan is practically the restoration of the Bashir regime without Omar al-Bashir. We have seen the military undo the vast majority of reforms, we have seen economic progress halted and financial assistance from the international community suspended. We have seen the intelligence services rehabilitated to arrest and detain people. What we are likely to see is that the military is trying to appoint a new prime minister, who will likely be military compliant and under the influence of the military”, explains Cameron Hudson, a member of the American Think Tank of the Atlantic Council.
Generals Ibn Auf, Al Burhan and Hemetti seem destined to remain in power. Behind the official declarations condemning the coup, the United States unreservedly supports them as they are considered an element of stability for Sudan. Washington fears that a government entirely in the hands of civilians could disintegrate, initiating a dangerous social and political crisis and creating an uncontrollable situation of chaos where the forces of radical Islam and terrorist groups can take over.
In addition to being considered the bulwark of stability and an effective deterrent against radical Islam, the Generals are considered by the White House and the Pentagon as excellent allies to counter the Eritrean and Ethiopian regimes, supporting the democratic forces in Ethiopia: TPLF and Oromo Liberation Army. Since the beginning of the civil war, the Sudanese generals have supported the Ethiopian armed opposition, providing military bases in Sudan and supplying weapons, ammunition and mercenaries.
In addition to pleasing the United States, the Generals are motivated to support the TPLF and OLA to counter the territorial aims on the Sudanese territories of al-Fashaga of the Amhara regime of Addis Ababa and of the Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki. Since 2020 there have been at least 5 invasion attempts by Eritrean and Ethiopian troops in an attempt to annex al-Fashaga to the Ethiopian Amhara region. The latest invasion attempt was carried out between 27 November and 4 December. Eritrean forces and Amhara paramilitary militias were pushed back by the Sudanese army after 8 hours of fighting on 4 different fronts in the areas of Unm Disa, Barakat Noreen, Malkamo and east of the Atbara River.
The nationalist Amhara regime and the Eritrean dictator are intent on taking advantage of the political chaos in Sudan to conquer these disputed border territories. Information from some African intelligence speaks of open Eritrean and Ethiopian support for the protests that broke out in Port Sudan which blocked the commercial port for several weeks between October and November.
Fuelling chaos in Sudan is a priority for Ethiopian Premier Abiy Ahmed Ali and the Eritrean dictator. Both fear that the Sudanese Generals decide to invade Ethiopia and fight alongside the TPLF and OLA. A possible scenario dictated by the need to put an end to the continuous military attempts of territorial annexation and to resolve the issue of the Ethiopian mega-dams GERD. The Sudanese Generals have the Egyptian dictator: General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi as ally against Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The propaganda network of the Eritrean dictator Afwerki has already unleashed yet another virtual war on social networks. The #NoMore network, that operates from the United States in the dissemination of propaganda and fake news in support of the regimes of Asmara and Addis Ababa, is launching thousands of appeals to the Sudanese population to join the Ethiopian “resistance” against the usurping Sudanese Generals and “terrorist” groups Ethiopians: TPLF and OLA. An obvious stretch given that the Amhara leadership is fighting to impose ethnic domination on Ethiopia through a frightening civil war and genocide in Tigray, while the Sudanese protesters are fighting to impose democracy and peaceful coexistence of all ethnic groups in Sudan.
Hamdok’s resignation opens up an uncertain future for Sudan. The Sudanese crisis is part of a wider regional crisis dictated by the civil war in Ethiopia and the political crisis in Somalia which threatens to spark another civil war in the Horn of Africa.
For this reason, the Sudanese Generals are considered indispensable by the United States and the West in general. Thanks to this support Ibn Auf, Al Burhan and Hemetti have excellent chances to impose their will and take control of the country. Civilian casualties and the Sudanese people’s desire for real democracy matter little. What matters are the logic of Real Politik.
