Ethiopia. The Khartoum-Washington-Paris peace initiative could hide a radical regime change in Etiopia and Eritrea

Sudan offered itself as a mediator between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) with the support of the international community. A diplomatic move agreed with the United States and France, which could hide an escalation of the conflict after the predictable Prosperity Party regime refusal. A war escalation with a clear target of a radical regime change both Ethiopia and Eritrea

Prime Minister Sudanese Abdallah Hamdok, after the visit of the USAID Director: Samantha Power and various consultations with the White House, activated diplomatic channels with the Ethiopian government and Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) leaders, by proposing itself as a mediator to bring the two contenders at the negotiations table to discuss a peaceful solution to the crisis and allow humanitarian aid to civilians.

The Sudanese initiative bypasses the inertia of the African Union. Even during this crisis, this African supranational institution has demonstrated its incapacity to play the role of peace and unity continental promoter. Role to which the African Union has abdicated during the crises in Libya, Burundi, Congo and in the fight against Islamic terrorism in West Africa. At present, the African Union is a well-known wheelchair, crowded by opportunistic and corrupt officials, unable to any action that is not aimed at personal enrichment and strengthening their privileges. The need for a profound AU reform is now evident, already attempted by the Rwandan president Paul Kagame but at the time contrasted hard by the army of continental bureaucrats.

Premier Hamdok mediation proposition has as its first goal to defende national security. The transition government in Khartoum is still weak, torn from clandestine power struggles between its military and civil components. Even within the armed forces there is a profound division between the regular army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) special unit. This situation was the main impediment for Sudan to start war against Ethiopia due to the territorial contents of the border and GERD mega dam. A peace in Ethiopia would remove the risk of destabilizing national security of Sudan and resized the current nefarious role of the Eritrea on the region.

American support at the initiative was clarified by Samantha Power. “We want to support the transformation of Sudan from a source of instability to a partner to solve the challenges of a volatile region, more urgently working together to face the conflict in Ethiopia, to which there is no military solution”, declares the power at a conference At the University of Khartoum. The visit to Khartoum of the Secretary of American State Antony Blinken has the purpose of formalizing the US support to the initiative by providing it with international value and thickness.

The support also comes from France. On July 31st, the French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Hamdok and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed where he expressed his concern about the continuous fighting in the country and called to allow Humanitarian assistance in Tigray. Macron insisted in the opening of negotiations and political dialogue in compliance with the integrity and national unity of Ethiopia.

How many possibilities has the Sudanese peace initiative? Many few in my opinion.

While finding itself in extreme difficulty the Prosperity Party regime is trying to contain the offensives of the regular army of the Tigray (Tigray Defense Forces — TDF) in Amhara and Afar to acquire the time needed to reorganize (with the help of Russia and Turkey ) the decimated federal army. Abiy Ahmed Ali, Agegnehu Teshager and Temesgen Tiruneh, signing a peace agreement with TPLF would leach the entire nation the signal of their extreme political and military weakness. This would encourage other ethnicities to the open rebellion and secessionist movements starting from Oromia.

At best a peace with the TPLF would mark the PP political end. It would be very difficult for this political movement, without a popular real base, continue to govern the country after farce elections and, above all, after sparkling a horrible civil war that failed to win.

For Prosperity Party leadership peace negotiations cannot be considered an honorable way out. From their point of view it is more convenient to continue the conflict in the hope to make it eternal as in Syria if it will be impossible for them. Sit at the negotiations table would mean for Abiy the admission of the defeat and, worse, the recognition of the TPLF as legitimate military political force, and not as “Rebel” and “Terrorist” organization as the Amhara nationalist rhetoric currently paints it.

The impossibility of activating peace negotiations by Prosperity Party is well known by Washington and Paris strategists. The organization of the POWER visit to Ethiopia, characterized by a high dose of arrogance and dialogue between deaf, is the most evident demonstration that important decisions have already been taken to the White House, the Elisèe, the Pentagon and NATO.

We should not give too much weight to diplomatic declarations of preferring a peaceful solution by stating that the Ethiopian crisis cannot be solved at military level. These are mandatory phrases of circumstances. The plans seem to be diametrically opposite. The announcement by international media of the historic Amhara city of Lalibela liberation by TDF is a clear example. Another defeat and humiliation inflicted on a demoralized federal army now incapable of containing the enemy. It’s seam to assist to classic tactic application: “if you want peace, prepare war”.

Beyond the discounted negations of the TPLF, it is evident that the regular army of the Tigray is receiving large quantities of weapons and ammunition that allow him to get important victories on the front. The Government of Addis Ababa has only wrong about the refueling channels identification, lifting the fault to international NGOs. The channels exist and very real, but Addis has been unable to identify them correctly offering a big advantage to the enemy. The boycott of humanitarian assistance in the hope of preventing war supplies does nothing but worsen the international reputation of Ethiopia.

Others are the plans of the Western powers on the strategic country of the Horn of Africa. Stabilizing Ethiopia through a clear national victory, preserving the unity of the country, preventing Ethiopia to enter under Russian or Turkish influence sphere. Restore Western control that TPLF has guaranteed for almost 30 years.

Tegaru leadership are well aware of real American and European needs. When and if the conflict will be win by them, they will not push towards the secession of Tigray but towards strengthening the national unity and the federalist system involving other important political forces, primarily Oromo. This is part of the Realpolitik and, so far, Tegaru leaders showed a strong dose of realism. The communion of intent between Washington and Mekelle will not end on Ethiopian crisis resolution. It will end with regime change in Eritrea. North Korean dictatorship of Isias Afwerki is not more tolerate by Western Power.