Ethiopia. The federal offensive in Amhara against the TPLF has begun.
The federal army offensive against the Tigray Defense Forces has begun. Here the first news from the Amhara front from reliable sources.
The much promised and emphasized offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) began yesterday in the Amhara region. Due to the weakness of the Federal Army (ENDF), decimated during the Tigray Campaign and the subsequent offensives of the Regular Tigray Army (TDF) in Amhara and Afar, the campaign began with a prevalent use of air strikes and Iranians, Emirates, (perhaps) Turks war drones. The areas controlled by the TDF most affected are Gashena, Arbit and Wurgesa. At the moment the offensive is concentrated in the Amhara region and there are no air strikes in Tigray.
The first news from the front of this offensive arrives after the spokesman of the Amhara leadership and Premier Abiy Ahmed Ali has sworn that it will be decisive by stating that the TPLF will be destroyed in a short time. The sources of the news come from observers on the spot, Western and African diplomats and declaration from both Amhara regime and TPLF with the aim of offer to the readers a first and partial picture of the military operations in progress.
Getachew Reda, spokesman for the TPLF confirmed the heavy bombardments against the positions of the TDF army and its allies in the Amhara region. “We are witnessing massive bombings against our positions remembering that Tigray is the last 11 months has been involved in a brutal armed conflict by pro-government forces. We record heavy bombardments with the use of air raids, war drones and heavy artillery, as well as an important concentration of troops massed in the northern parts of the Amhara region, including the areas of North Gondar and North Wollo. We are confident of countering the offensive on all fronts. We will remain standing until the end of the siege of Tigray “.
The offensive is developing on three different fronts within the Amhara region. The first front is concentrated in the localities of Weliya, Ambassel, Mersa, Wichale, between Hida and Chifra. At the moment, federal ground troops are not particularly used, preferring bombing to weaken enemy resistance. Currently, the TDF forces hold their defensive positions.
The second front is in the Gashena area, on the border with North Wollo, occupied by the TPLF last August where there are no particular bombings but clashes between ground troops. Our sources report heavy attacks by federal forces currently all repelled by the TPLF. The loss of life is unknown, which should be high given the intensity and barbarism of the clashes in Gashena. On the contrary, the Amhara regime claims control of three strategic areas in Gashena. This claim is currently unmatched. The areas designated by the government represent a small portion of the vast mountainous territory of Gashena but could be used as a bridgehead to launch other offensives.
The third front is positioned in the strategic position of Ebenat, in the wareda (district) of Gonjjam, near Gondar where the Tigray army still holds positions. The goal is to dislodge the Tigrinya troops stationed in the area and prevent the fall of the Amhara imperial city of Gondar. Amhara nationalist leadership has particularly at heart the third offensive which, if successful, will remove the risk of the defeat of the Addis Ababa regime.
If Gondar and Bahir Dar (capital of the region) were to fall, the TPLF would bring about an almost definitive victory over the central government. Dusting off nationalist rhetoric, the Amhara leadership vowed to emulate Amhara Emperor, Susenyos I that on January 17, 1608 where he defeated the Oromia army, killing 12,000 Oromo at the cost of only 400 Amhara. Despite this promise, all federal attacks have now been repelled by TDF. The Amhara Generals angry by the Tegaru resistance are launching continuous waves of soldiers suffering numerous casualties.
The ongoing offensive is of vital importance to the nationalist Amhara leadership. Should the federal army and its related militias fail, they risk being no longer in a position to oppose resistance to TPLF and Oromo Liberation Army. The defence of the country would be possible only by entrusting it to the Eritrean troops.
Amhara regime is estimated to have been able to field around 600,000 new federal soldiers. Some African diplomats think it is an exaggerated estimate due to propaganda reasons. In their opinion, it is more likely that the total number of men employed in the offensive does not exceed 300,000. Sky News reporter John Sparks, returning from a mission in Amhara, reports that the majority of federal soldiers employed in the current offensive are middle and high school students aged between 16 and 19. Among them many girls.
According to personal information from regional military observers, this army of students will be used as cannon fodder, throwing vague thousands of kids to Tegaru defenses to weaken their positions and make them waste ammunition. The bulk of the operations will be supported by ENDF veterans surviving units, the Republican Guard, the Amhara FANO and Sheret Lebashoche militias, with the likely participation of the Eritrean army, already present with at least 4 divisions in Amhara.
Sajid Nadeem, Indian Geopolitics Expert and Conflict Reporter (who publishes on YouTube accurate reports from the various Ethiopian fronts since November 2020), says that the goal of this offensive is to liberate the Amhara region, as from pressure suffered by the Premier Abiy by the President of the Amhara Agegnehu Teshager and the head of the terrible political police Temesgen Tigruneh, the true masterminds of all this primitive horror.
The spokesperson for the Amhara region indirectly confirms Nadeem’s claims, stating that the liberation of the Amhara region from the TPLF “terrorists” is the top priority and must be conducted on all fronts, 24 hours a day and with every man and mean available of the Ethiopian government.
No invasion of Tigray is expected or offensive in Oromia. The plan would be to liberate the Amhara region, push back the TDF forces by forcing them to retreat to Tigray and continue the land, air and humanitarian blockade until 7 million people either surrender or starve. Only after defeating the TPLF will the federal army deal with the OLA Oromo “terrorists”.
Tigray could be invaded by Eritrean troops (present in some areas of Tigray on the border with Eritrea) only if the Tegaru forces manage to repel the offensive in progress on the three fronts of the Amhara. The Eritrean invasion of Tigray would only serve to force TPLF to split forces to defend its motherland, thus allowing the federal army to break through the Tegaru defense lines in Amhara.
The offensive was launched 3 days after the start of negotiations for the formation of the new Ethiopian government following the victory in the elections last June where the majority of the opposition parties did not participate and, in fact, the Prosperity Party competed as a single party. The European Union and the United States have not endorsed the credibility of these elections.
The major novelty of the new government will be a further centralization of the powers of the Prime Minister’s Office, totally under the control of Teshager and Tigruneh Amhara leaders. The INSS political police, the INSA (Information Network Security Agency, the telematic espionage network on citizens created 10 years ago by Abiy when collaborating with the TPLF), the IFS (Investment & Financial Security), the national media and all financial institutions will be now directed by Premier Abiy. Actually by the nationalist Amhara leadership.
Simultaneously with the offensive in Amhara, Temesgen Tigruneh ordered the political police and the federal police to intensify the repression against Ethiopian citizens of Tegaru origin in the capital Addis Ababa and in all regions and cities under federal control. The main opposition newspaper, Addis Standard, reports an escalation of Tegaru’s arrests and unprecedented business closures.
In the midst of the escalation of war and the ongoing genocide in Tigray, the European Parliament adopted a resolution on the drama calling for a wide range of sanctions against Ethiopia. The resolution calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities by all warring parties, immediate peace talks, free humanitarian access in Tigray, protection of civilians and an end to violations of international law and mass atrocities committed. The European Parliament calls on all EU Member States to act in unison to end the conflict in Ethiopia.
The European resolution (not appreciated by the nationalist Amhara leadership) is the result of the obligations that Europe has towards the United States following the signing of the Atlantic Pact which took place after the defeat of the Nazis in World War II. The pressure from President Biden appears to have been successful. However, it must be noted that the European Parliament avoids talking about genocide in Tigray, preferring to speak of unspecified “mass atrocities” and tries, in the official text of the resolution, to blame the serious crimes against humanity committed by federal and Eritrean soldiers to all warring parties.
In the end makes a request totally contrary to the plans of the United States. That of asking the United Nations Security Council to consider the possibility of deploying UN peacekeepers in Ethiopia. This proposal, if adopted, is practically impossible to implement. It would receive the immediate rejection of all parties involved in the conflict who would consider the use of UN peacekeepers as external interference and a freeze of war to allow the enemy to reorganize its forces.
It should also be remembered that the presence of UN peacekeepers in Africa in the last twenty years has not resolved any conflict or been able to defend civilian populations. The most striking example comes to us from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the MONUSCO peacekeeping mission in 20 years has failed to stop the various wars to the east and is hated by the Congolese population due to the constant refusal to protect civilians from massacres. carried out by the various militias.
