Ethiopia. The civil war risks becoming another forgotten eternal third world conflict.
The recent Eritrean offensive managed to dislodge TPLF and OLA from the Amhara and Afar regions, preventing the fall of the capital Addis Ababa. Now the Eritrean troops, thanks to the air support of the drones, are trying to invade Tigray for the second time with the clear objective of annihilating the TPLF in serious difficulty. Unfortunately, there will be no near end of the conflict. The irreducibility of Ethiopian military adversaries, blinded by ethnic hatred or forced to defend the existence of their own populations, combined to the interference of too many foreign powers does not allow for a peaceful solution. The civil war in Ethiopia now risks becoming another long forgotten third world conflict as in Libya, CAR, Yemen, Syria, South Sudan.
The recent offensive by the fascist Amhara regime forced the democratic forces to withdraw. The TPLF is returning to Tigray and the Oromo Liberation Army to Oromia. This is thanks to around 120,000 Eritrean soldiers sent by dictator Isaias Afwerki and to the massive use of combat drones kindly offered by China, the Arab Emirates, Iran and Turkey.
So the Ethiopian conflict is coming to an end with the final victory of the Amhara regime? Not at all!
“There will be no truces or medium-term peace talks. The government of the Prosperity Party, blinded by this victory, now intends to annihilate the enemy. The TPLF and the OLA will not disarm despite their retreats. The TPLF is aware that disarmament means offering the Eritrean and Ethiopian governments the opportunity to invade Tigray the next day. So I don’t think disarmament is a prospect for the TPLF and the OLA. If they do, it would be like giving up protecting their own populations” explains Tekalu Gebremichael, an Ethiopian writer who has been continuously documenting the terrible Ethiopian civil war since November 2020. Tekay was recently labelled by the regime as an “active terrorist” awaiting justice.
Peace will not be reached for Christmas or Gennà (Ethiopian Christmas January 6–7) of this year or next year. Ethiopia is turning into yet another forgotten Third World war due to the willingness of all Ethiopian parties involved to secure final victory, the inability of the international community to force them to sit down at the negotiating table and stop the genocide in Tigray, and the internationalization of the Ethiopian conflict.
As in Syria and Yemen, two opposing blocs are forming around the Ethiopian civil war that support the warring parties to protect their geo-strategic and economic interests, prolonging the conflict indefinitely. On the one hand we have China, the Arab Emirates, Iran, Russia and Turkey directly supporting the fascist regime Amhara and the Eritrean dictator Afwerki with weapons, ammunition, political protection at the United Nations, granting additional loans to buy weapons and sending mercenaries for piloting in remote control the drones and military advisers for land operations.
On the other hand, we have Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Great Britain, the United States and Sudan who support, finance and arm the TPLF and the OLA. Within the European Union (as usual) there are deep divisions. Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic, Poland voted in favor of the UN resolution for an independent commission to investigate crimes against humanity committed in Ethiopia. Resolution to which the Ethiopian fascist regime immediately opposed in a clear and firm way.
Yet two days ago Germany announced 80.6 million euros that will be paid to the Ethiopian regime to finance food self-sufficiency, good governance, agricultural mechanization and programs against drought. The announcement was made during a meeting between the German Ambassador in Addis Ababa Aure Stephan and the Minister of Finance Amhend Shide, yet another Amhara hawk, a staunch supporter of the genocide against Tigrinis and ethnic cleansing against the Oromo. Germany should know that these 80.6 m euros will be used to pay for the war effort of a war that will persist for a long time to come. Italy, albeit giving signs of critical thinking towards the Addis Ababa regime (up to now shamefully supported to the bitter end) remains steadfast in its silent political and financial support for the Eritrean regime, one of the main actors in the Ethiopian drama.
“In Ethiopia, military rule has always been crucial for effective central control. Haile Selassie’s reign was based on Rye’s military victory in 1916 over his deposed predecessor. The Derg government was based on army control, until it was overthrown by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) in 1991. But military control alone is never enough. The state has yet to be seen as legitimate in the eyes of the governed people, or at least by a sufficient majority of them “, explains on the African Arguments website the director of the Royal African Society: Nick Westcott former EU CEO for Africa (2011–2015 ). It is precisely the concept of governing through military domination that prevents the parties in conflict from seeking any solution other than the annihilation of the adversary.
Since November 2020, both Premier Abiy and the TPLF leadership have overestimated their political and military strength and underestimated that of their opponent. Abiy believed to resolve the conflict in a week in November 2020. The TPLF was convinced to free Addis Ababa and overthrow the regime by Christmas 2021. It is this mutual miscalculation that runs the risk, if prolonged, of leading to a stalemate that will see Ethiopia join South Sudan, Libya, Syria and Yemen in an interminable conflict, devastating for the economy and the population.
Both sides already see the conflict as existential. Abiy fears being evicted from power, the Amhara fear being excluded again, as they were after the fall of Haile Selassie, and the Tigrayans fear actual annihilation and exile, as seemed to happen before they regained military control of the Tigray. Under these circumstances, neither side wants to give up the slightest advantage through negotiation and sees military victory as the only way to survive. So both will fight to the bitter end, pushing away the peace for many more years.
The civil war in Ethiopia is already becoming a war of attrition. “Prime Minister Abiy is convinced that a long-term war will benefit him. With just 7 million Tigers and over 90 million people in the rest of the country, ultimate victory may seem inevitable. But even that can turn out to be a miscalculation if the cost of war undermines his own legitimacy and puts his authority at risk. This could be one of the reasons why the government is so relentlessly and recklessly fomenting the rhetoric of mistrust and ethnic hatred to bolster its political stance by increasing fear of Tigrayans. Elsewhere this rhetoric was a precursor to genocide. ” Explains Nick Westcott.
The recent victories of the fascist Amhara regime solve nothing. While Abiy currently manages to control the plains and cities, it is nearly impossible to defeat the TPLF in Tigray and the OLA in Oromia. The retreat of the TDF and the OLA is to be interpreted as a decision to fall back to land more suited to their light infantry than the plains of the Amhara where they are the target of aviation and drones. It is only possible to weaken them by preventing them from carrying out classic military campaigns as they did from June to October of this year.
“It is likely that the Ethiopian government’s attempt now is to lock the TDF within the borders of Tigray, hitting it from above intermittently with air raids, destabilizing social cohesion and giving the final blow to the population, hoping for abandoning any kind of political and military instance and above all making it devoid of any source of supply ”, analyzes colleague Matteo Palamidesse on the Italian information site Focus on Africa (@FocusonafricaIt).
This tactic is likely as it was devised by the Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki who effectively holds control of Ethiopia. Premier Abiy and the nationalist Amhara leadership no longer have adequate armed forces to place themselves on an equal footing with the Asmara regime. They survive only thanks to the Eritrean military intervention.
Even their allies: China, the United Emirates, Iran, Turkey, are first and foremost allies of Eritrea that the dictator Afwerki has convinced to support the Ethiopian fascist regime. Compared to the mentally unstable kid, Abiy, Isaias Afwerki is a shrewd strategist and enjoys the respect and consideration among these international allies. The Eritrean army effectively controls Ethiopian political and military life by transforming Abiy and the Amhara leadership into mere executors of political decisions taken in Asmara. Addis Ababa is under the full and exclusive control of the Eritrean armed forces.
While the Tigray siege and attrition tactic is highly probable, it requires a long-term view. Tigray will not collapse in the coming months while in Oromia the OLA holds its position and there are clear signs of a mass popular uprising. A serious problem for Afwerki and his Ethiopian puppets, given that the capital is located in Oromia and the Oromo represent 40% of the Ethiopian population.
TPLF and OLA suffered a military defeat but popular support remains intact. They are also working to strengthen alliances with other Ethiopian regions after the United Front of the Ethiopian Federalist Forces was established in Washington DC last November. New alliances are likely for three reasons.
The majority of Ethiopian regions are opposed to Abiy’s project of centralization of power and one party which would mean restoring the Amhara ethnic domination to the detriment of the other 79 ethnic groups. They see Eritrea’s support as an unforgivable offense to Ethiopia’s pride and independence, aware that Afwerki is in fact becoming the true master of the country, albeit behind the scenes.
The majority presence of the OLA in the United Front and the awareness that the TPLF (if it wins the war) will never again be able to take on within the new government coalition, the dominant role played within the EPRDF (Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front) from 1991 to 2018, represent other factors in favor of an alliance of the other regions with the democratic forces excluding the Amhara and Afar regions.
With the exception of the Amhara (23 million people), the majority of the Ethiopian population is opposed to the totalitarian projects of Afwerki, Abiy and the bandaged Amhara leadership. The number of Ethiopians opposed to the central government and the Eritrean dictator’s overwhelming power is set to increase as economic conditions deteriorate, as Alex Rondos pointed out in a speech on the ABC (American Broadcasting Company) television program The World Today. The Ethiopian economy has effectively collapsed due to Abiy’s insane military spending. Expenses that will continue in the face of the impossibility of obtaining a short-term victory over TPLF and OLA, destroying any possibility of economic recovery.
The only factor that can change this situation is external. The international community has enough power and influence to use to increase the pressure for a peaceful solution. But for now it seems divided, and that itself could prolong rather than resolve the conflict. The IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development in Eastern Africa) regional bloc is divided internally. Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia support the banded Ethiopian regime while Sudan opposes it, and Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda have not adopted ambiguous policies.
African Union has already demonstrated its complete failure to enforce peace in Ethiopia, due to the incompetence and corruption that reign within this international institution. The United Nations is blocked by the veto of Russia and China at the Security Council. The European Union is divided internally. The only active players are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Great Britain, Iran, Sudan and the United States. Unfortunately all willing to support and help the Abiy regime or the TPLF and OLA to obtain the final military victory.
This internationalization of the Ethiopian conflict (with strong and false ideological connotations of the Third World and the West) are the main factor in the continuation of the war which will become increasingly atrocious, ferocious and merciless.
Will Ethiopia, like Libya, Yemen, the Central African Republic, Syria and South Sudan be another victim of the new multipolar world?
