Ethiopia. The civil war reaches the states of Amhara and Benishangul-Gumuz.
The civil war in Tigray is just the tip of the iceberg, which hides a series of conflicts between States, Region and Central Government associated with ethnic conflicts. An end-of-empire situation. “Prime Minister Abiy is about to bring Ethiopia into a very dangerous situation. He’s not listening to anyone” a diplomat told to Reuters. The upcoming administrative elections next June also seem to be compromised
After 5 months that Amhara State regional forces and FANO militias are brutalizing Tigray by applying ethnic extermination tactics and mass rape as weapons of war, while the Amhara leadership is illegaly annexing territories to the south of Tigray, it was practically inevitable that the horrors of the civil war reached the state of Amhara and its people.
Since last March there has been an unstoppable escalation of ethnic violence in the state of Amhara dominated by the Amhara ethnic group (the second largest in Ethiopia) but with a strong component of Oromo, the largest ethnic group in the country. The ethnic clashes involve the two ethnic groups who in turn slaughter each other. According to Endale Haile, Ethiopia’s main ombudsman, ethnic violence has already killed 300 people.
The conflict between Amhara and Oromo in the state of Amhara promises to be very complicated and with serious risks of national destabilization. The ethnic rivalries expressed with acts of extreme violence summarize two main factors of a millenary diatribe between the two main Ethiopian ethnic groups. Rivalry for power and borderland disputes. In fact, the totality of the reasons for these ongoing violence are closely linked to territorial claims and attempts to forcibly drive away people belonging to the rival ethnic group to occupy the lands. Several regional and federal officials were attacked and beaten.
The federal army and the far-right Amhara leadership have proved unable to protect the Amhara population as they are under pressure on the Tigray and Oromia fronts. This passivity of the regional and central authorities has sparked the anger of the Amhara population who for four days has been demonstrating in the capital Bahir Dar and other main cities of the state including: Gondar and Drebre Brehan. They demand protection and justice.
The regional head of the Amhara Prosperity Party denounced the protests, which saw images of Prime Minister Abiy being torn apart. He accuses the TPLF, the Oromo armed resistance: OLF-OLA and other anti-government forces of being behind these protests and of exploiting them politically. Associating the protests with political enemies such as TPLF and OLF-OLA seem a very grotesque move given that the slogans against Tigrigna and Oromo are present and extremely clear in the demonstrations. The nationalist Amhara leadership did not miss an opportunity to deal yet another blow to the opposition parties. The main Amharic opposition party: NaMA, was accused of being behind the protest as well.
The western region of Benishangul-Gumuz, where the GERD mega dam stands, has also entered the hellish circle of civil war. An armed group has taken control of a woreda (county), according to the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC). Reports received indicate that the Sedal woreda, in the Kamashi area, has been under almost complete control of an armed group since April 19. Residents who fled the area told the EHRC that the armed group burned and looted public and private property and that the woreda administration and local police fled the area. There have also been killings and kidnappings of public officials. The reports do not specify which armed group it is.
Benishangul-Gumuz is a key state of the Ethiopian Federation as it is home to the important GERD mega dam. A 4 billion dollar project that according to the Addis Ababa government is the key to its economic development and energy production, but also causes strong tensions with Egypt and Sudan due to the decrease in water supplies from the Nile.
As in the state of Amhara, also in Benishangul-Gumuz there is an escalation of ethnic violence between the Gumuz, the Agaws, the Shinasas and the Amhara. The totality of the attacks are originated from ethnic hatred and disputes between ethnic groups and are increasingly bloody against civilians. The ongoing ethnic clashes compromise the necessary security for the entry into operation of the GERD dam and the related energy production.
If the conflict were isolated, solutions could be found using a mixture of persuasive force and inter-ethnic dialogue to find acceptable compromises. Unfortunately it is inserted in the context of a civil war in Tigray, a military campaign in Oromia, ethnic clashes in Amhara and strong tensions between the states of Afar and Somali Region (formerly Ogaden) which have already led to clashes between their respective regional defense forces..
A senior diplomat working on the crisis in Ethiopia told Reuters that Prime Minister Abiy Ahamed Ali is increasingly dipendent on the leadership of the right-wing Amhara, increasing the risk of further ethnic violence. His political plan to replace the federation with a strong central government is been see by the various region-states as a plan to re-impose Amhara dominion over the country after having exercised it for centuries from Emperor Menelik I upto Emperor Halle Sellasse.
“Ethiopia is like an empire that is crumbling before our eyes,” said the diplomat. Prime Minister Abiy continues to reject any proposal for mediation on the conflict in Tigray. Last but not least the one submitted by the regional group IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development). “The Prime Minister is about to take the country into a very dangerous situation. He is not listening to anyone, ”the diplomat told Reuters.
Will Davison, senior analyst at the Thinkthak “International Crisis Group” said the TPLF may be able to launch a major counter-offensive to expand controlled territories in the center of the region north and south. Davison says “The path to surrender the leadership of Tigray seems arduous”
On April 21, there were fights at the woreda of MaySagla, Weri-Leake in central Tigray. At the Guya location, the TDF (Tigray Defense Force) claims to have shot down a Federal Mi-35 combat helicopter. Eritrean units allegedly reconquered the Idagahamus area by burning various villages.
The fighting is part of the fourth offensive attempted by Eritrean troops and the federal army. Offensive this time launched not by Mekelle but by the historic city of Gondar in the Amhara state. In this great offensive, 27 infantry divisions, five mechanized divisions of EDF (Eritrea Defense Force) and 11 infantry divisions, 4 mechanized divisions and 2 battalions of ENDF (Ethiopia National Defense Force) are engaged in the fighting. At the moment it is not known whether the TDFs managed to contain the offensive.
There are reports of heavy artillery clashes around the Tigray capital: Mekelle. A shooting took place near the Lachi bus station on Wednesday 21 April. Several young men are said to have been shot dead as they tried to prevent looting by Eritrean and federal soldiers.
On the Oromia front there are clashes between Eritrean troops, the feds, Amhara militias and the OLF-OLA armed opposition in the towns of Ch’anch’o and Gutin in the district of east Wolega, Oromia. Local sources report various homes and farms set on fire. No death toll is available.
The federal government has decided to carry out mass deportations of the population to Oromia where the fighting against the Oromo OLF-OLA rebellion is most intense. The goal is easy to understand: to remove popular support from the Oromo rebellion. According to data provided by the traditional chief Endale Haile at Agence France-Presse (AFP) 250 people have been deported from their areas of residence in Oromia. Another 75,000 Oromo who lived in the Amhara state have deported in a clear ethnic cleansing action. There is no news of violence or victims during the deportation operations
Despite promises of withdrawal, the Eritrean army remains the key factor in the conflicts in Tigray and Oromia. Without Eritrea’s contribution, the Addis Ababa federal government would have already lost on both fronts. The US State Department said it saw no evidence of Eritrea’s withdrawal from Tigray, despite being announced nearly 20 days ago, reiterating the need for Eritrea to withdraw immediately.
Faced with the failure to withdraw Eritrean troops from Tigray, the European Union has frozen 100 million euros for bilateral aid in Eritrea. The loan, approved in 2018, was earmarked for the construction of new roads in the country. The appropriation had already raised various criticisms, as it was feared that young people forced into compulsory military service would be used as free labor. The United Nations has defined compulsory military service as slavery.
In a letter to the European Parliament’s development committee, Jutta Urpilainen, the commissioner for international partnerships proposed that the funding be used for humanitarian assistance in other areas of the Horn of Africa. Urpilainen proposed the following breakdown of Eritrean funds according to priorities: 80 million for Sudan, 20 million for South Sudan and 20 million for refugees in the region.
News arrives from the African diplomatic environment in Addis Ababa that the leaders of the TPLF are seeking the mediation of the African Union and the United Nations in order to proclaim a ceasefire and the beginning of peace negotiations. The letter requesting mediation would have been viewed by Reuters. If the request will be accepted, it would represent a political victory for the TPLF aimed at putting Premier Abiy in serious difficulty, forced to continue the civil war in Tigray to safeguard his political survival.
Bad news arrives on t`he organization of the local elections scheduled for next June. Elections with which Premier Abiy, together with his party: Prosperity Party, hopes to win a landslide victory that can legitimize his political project of replacing the federation with a central government. The Ethiopian Electoral Commission (NEBE) informs that it has been forced to prologue the registration of citizens with voting rights for another three weeks in the states of Afar and Somali Region.
Tigray has been excluded from the elections while it will be virtually impossible to secure the elections in Oromia where the fighting against the OLF-OLA rages. The elections will take place in a climate of civil war and ethnic conflicts, seriously compromising the credibility of the vote which, various opposition politicians, already claim is in favor of the Prosperity Party even before opening the polling stations.
The crackdown on opposition leaders is also continuing with the clear aim of preventing them from participating in elections. Opposition politician Lidetu Ayalew is banned from traveling abroad despite needing heart surgery. He spent mid-2020 in jail on fabricated charges. The document reveals that police have called for a ban due to “criminal” offenses, primarily its condemnation of the Tigray War. Almost all Oromo political leaders remain in prison.
