Ethiopia. Temporary victory of the Amhara regime thanks to the Eritrean army and Arab mercenaries.
Nobel Peace Prize winner Abiy Ahmed Ali in his classic propaganda TV show declares the victory over the terrorists TPLF and OLA. A victory achieved only thanks to the Eritrean army sent by the dictator Isasias Afwerki and Arab mercenaries who remotely drive drones. TPLF and OLA withdrew from the Amhara region without fight announcing a relocation of troops to launch a new offensive. The victory seems temporary and the war is far from over.
“We have completed the elaboration of a plan to exterminate the enemy who has now been defeated. Now only the last pockets of resistance remain. We are ready to destroy them. The army and its leadership are ready. Our invincible army is studying the latest battle plan to cleanse the country from the terrorists. The preparation and morale of our soldiers are very high and I am in a good mood. What I want is national unity, peace and development. I was forced into this war but victory is inevitable. I remind all Ethiopians of the sacrifice that the army is paying at the front and I urge them to return the favor and continue their support. “
The message ends with an appeal to the youth of Tigray. “You have been tricked by the leaders of the TPLF to fighting this aimless war and dying without a reason. Now you must understand that the war is over. We won. If you don’t want to die, you have to give up. You will be treated with respect “
The reality on the front currently appears favourable to the Amhara regime. The counter offensive launched a week ago in the Afar region is the work of the Eritrean army which is engaging at least 6 divisions in an attempt to defeat the democratic forces made up of fighters from the TPLF, Oromo Liberation Army and 7 other regional armed groups. Ethiopian forces are supported by Afarine and Amhara paramilitary militias. The Ethiopian Federal Army ENDF plays a marginal role with very few divisions at its disposal.
The counter-offensive developed on 5 different fronts in Afar and Amhara. In Afar, the Eritrean army managed to pull back the TPLF. Two days ago, the strategic city of Chifra on the edge of the Amhara was reconquered. Opposite the fate of the offensive in the Amhara where the democratic forces initially succeeded in repelling any attempt by the Eritreans to break through the front. This is what was reported by Western diplomatic and intelligence sources.
The Eritrean divisions from Afar have joined with those in difficulty in Amara region, regrouping and launch an offensive in the northwest of the Amhara in the district of Warla Bota, with the aim of recapturing the strategic city of Gashena which is only 128 km away. from the capital.
According to reports we have received, the main cities of the Amhara region have been recaptured by Eritrean troops. Ethiopian paramilitary militias and their Eritrean allies receive support from Iran, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. These three countries are guaranteeing an airlift to deliver large quantities of weapons and ammunition.
TPLF and OLA armies High Commands have decided to adopt a tactic apparently incomprehensible at the moment, withdrawing from most of the Amhara region. TPLF Tigrinya forces withdrew from the strategic Amhara cities of Kombolcha, Dessie and Lalibella without a fight. Their repositioning is unknown. The Oromo Liberation Fornt also withdrew, indeed literally disappeared after consolidating their positions by freeing the city of Negelle Borena in Oromia.
What is the reason for this sudden retreat without a fight? Military observers report the decisive role of drones guided on remote by Iranian and Turkish mercenary technicians who would have destroyed a large number of armoured vehicles and tanks of the Tigray Defence Forces. Remaining in various areas with only the light infantry units, TPLF High Command would have decided not to engage further in the fighting. In a statement in the Amharic language, the TPLF explains that the withdrawal of its troops is due to a need to reorganize and reposition itself in order to lunch a new offensive to defeat Abiy’s regime.
The Ethiopian Air Force has launched two terrorist air raid campaigns against civilian populations in Oromia and Tigray. In Oromia cities have been bombed causing thousands of deaths among the civilian population according to sources from Ethiopian civil society. The cities most affected are found in the woreda (districts) of Gidda Kiramu and East Wollega and Eastern Nekemte. In Tigray, the city of Mekelle was bombed again. Another raid hit the main Tigray Dam: the Tekeze Dam, with the specific aim of destroying the essential infrastructure for the supply of electricity to the few hospitals not looted during the occupation from November 2020 to May 2021.
The Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki’s goal of inflicting a heavy defeat on the TPLF seems to have been achieved, forcing it to retreat to Tigray and then continue the siege of the region that has lasted since last June with the clear objective of weakening the enemy closed in its territory and causing the death by starvation of its population. Although there is a lack of precise information indicating a withdrawal of Tigrinya troops in their homeland, Tigray remains the most obvious and logical place for their repositioning. As for the Oromo Liberation Army, which probably repositioned itself in Oromia in the coming weeks, Eritrean troops from Afar and Amhara could undertake a military offensive with extensive use of drones to regain control of the region which is also home to the capital Addis Ababa.
This sudden military defeat is a severe blow to the democratic forces that until a week ago were approaching the capital in forced stages but it does not mean the end of the war, only its extension. The TPLF and the OLA will not agree to surrender. On the contrary, they will study new tactics and reorganize their forces to resume the offensives. It is unlikely at the moment an attack on Tigray by the regime that will continue the siege by merely bombing cities, infrastructures and military posts due to the fact that the TPLF does not have sufficient anti-aircraft defenses to counter Turkish, Chinese and Iranian federal aviation and drones .
The current military success was only possible thanks to the intervention of the Eritrean army ordered by the dictator Isaias Afwerki to avoid an invasion of his country should the TPLF and the OLA overthrow the Addis Ababa regime. But these troops will not stay in Ethiopia for long. As happened in Tigray and in the September offensive in Amhara, once the danger is contained, they will retreat to Eritrea, leaving some divisions to hold their positions.
Premier Abiy will take advantage of this to recreate the totally destroyed federal army. This doesn’t means that ENDF will return to being the strong and prepared army as it was some years ago. Abiy has been always focused on the quantity of men and armaments regardless of the quality of the chain of command that is affected by very poor quality since the majority of Generals are actually pandering politicians incapable of the art of war. As proof of this, the ENDF without the help of Eritrea has always been defeated.
Regional and international observers are questioning whether this victory is definitive. On the contrary, they are convinced that the war will continue. “On November 28, 2020, Abiy Ahmed Ali made an identical statement regarding the war in Tigray which did not correspond to reality in the least. Six months later, Ethiopian and Eritrean troops were defeated by Tigrinya forces and forced to withdraw from the northern region of Ethiopia. A year has passed and the Ethiopian Premier proves that he has not learned any lessons ” Sajid Nadeem notes on his twitter account @sajid_nadeem78. Nadeem is one of Pakistan’s leading experts on geopolitics and conflicts. He follows the Ethiopian civil war from the beginning, reporting first-hand news from the front and excellent and impartial political analyses.
The Ethiopian Premier no longer has control of the militias in Afar and Amhara which seem to be aiming to form real regional armies that may not recognize the authority of the central command of the federal armed forces. The Amhara militias will take advantage of this victory to reactivate their Greater Amhara territorial expansion plan by directly threatening both Southern Tigray and Sudan.
The Ethiopian civil war is turning into a fight to the death between the democratic forces of liberation, Eritrea and the fascist regime Amhara, of which Premier Abiy is a mere mouthpiece devoted to grotesque TV shows and paradoxical statements. What is certain is the continuation of the conflict which will take different forms, the ongoing genocide of Tigray population, the deadly fury against unarmed civilians by the Eritrean troops and the Amhara regime. Nobody will sit at the peace table. Nobody will give up. Until the last man. Until the last drop of blood.
