Ethiopia. TDF on the defensive in Amara and Afar.
Tigray regular army o (TDF) offensive in Amhara and Afar has been block by Abiy federal army, now engaged in various counteroffensive. TDF forces are in evident difficulties but the fate of war is still all to be decided. The possibilities of a peaceful solution are zero because the current offers of mediations are not credible. Both opposing parties: TPLF and Prosperity Party are willing to continue the war until the final victory and the total annihilation of the enemy.
The offensive of the regular army of the Tigray (TDF) in Afar and Amhara started last June to break the Tigray Terrestrial Block and the Tigray plane was in fact blocked by the Federal Army Endf and Associate Milizia Amhara and Afar. The federal offensive promise began in mid-August and is successful. The first significant victory of the endfs was the reconquest of the city of Gashena (250 km from the capital Amhara of Bahir Dar) which caused the cutting of supplies to the TDF troops who fought in Debre Tabor (108 km from Bahir Dar).
Between 22 and 30 August the endF recaptured the whole territory along the b22 motorway with the exception of the city of Filakit (236 km from Bahir Dar) still in control of the TDF. Special forces and Amhara militias have regained several cities including: Kimir Dingay and Nefas Meewcha. The last victory recorded by Endf is a few hours ago. The city of Debre Zebit (300 km from Bahir Dar) has been reconquered forcing the Tegaru troops to the retreat.
In Debre Tabor (108 km from Bahir Dar) furious fighting between endF and TDF are underway. The direction of the TPLF reported a great victory inflicting heavy losses to endfs, bitter militias and republican guards. Despite this victorial feders launched another offensive and fighting are in progress. Difficult to predict the results.
The situation in Amhara becomes increasingly unsustainable for the regular army of the Tigray which is trying to reorganize to establish a line in front and do not lose further ground. Since August 26th the TDF has launched a counterattack to resume the city of Gashena. The fighting are in progress.
The federal offensive is not due to the famous mass recruitments in the endf. The Prosperity Party regime is using the latest forces available to succeed in the Tigaru army in the Tigray and enclose it in the region through the terrestrial and airway in place since last April. The Amhara region is of strategic importance for both contenders. If it falls into the hands of the TDF, we would mark the total defeat for the Government of Addis Ababa. On the contrary, Premier Abiy would be able to stabilize the conflict by reinforcing the Tigray. This would allow him to acquire the time necessary to reconstitute the army and launch the attack to resume control of the “Rebel” region.
If there are no mass enrollment in the endF on the other part, the various offensives in the Amhara were possible thanks to a mass enrollment of Amhara in their militias. An enrollment clearly induced by the millennial ethnicity between Amhara and Tegaru. All TDF efforts to deal with the civilian population avoiding violence does not seem to have produced results.
Taking advantage of the moment of military victories, the premier Abiy has undertaken a tour in Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda in search of new alliance. Rwanda and Uganda are historically allied to the TPLF. In the 1980s and nineties the protagonists of African rebirth in East Africa and Horn of Africa were Meles Zenawi Asres, Paul Kagame and Yewerki Kaguta Museven who helped each other to reduce their respective regimes. The military alliance was strengthened at the political and economic level since 1995 onwards. Unfortunately, President Museveni seems to have offered the support of him, betraying the friendship with the TPLF leadership. This second palace rumors as no official statement has been issued on the specific themes of the interview between the two heads of state. Absolute mystery on the combination of Abiy with President Paul Kagame in Rwanda.
The only front that continues to record military successes is that of the Oromo Liberation Army (Ola) in Oromy. Two days ago Ola freed the city of Negele. The Oil Army is structurally weak as it lacked tanks and with a few pieces of heavy artillery, but has the support of the population and exploits the fact that the majority of what remains of the federal army is committed to the Amhara and Afar fronts . But there is to point out that a possible defeat of the TDF would pritate to Abiy to concentrate the forces in oromy managing to block the advance of the Ola.
At the moment there are no certain news of the delivery of war drones by Turkey, nor of the massive use of Iranian war drones in Amhara and Afar. Three days ago on social media, photographs had been published to demonstrate a killing of Iranian drone by TDF. Careful research showed that the photographs referred to the fighting in Armenia of October 2020. An increase in Turkish military support is predictable in case the current offensive against TPLF bring greater results and put the regular army of the Tigray.
It is premature to talk about a dash Head of TDF Forces but it is necessary to highlight that they are in serious difficulty. At the moment the endf feds failed to break through the front, tearing the tegaru who have all the possibility of launching victorious offensives and focus again on the conquest of Gondar and Bahir Dar who would end the civil war forcing the PP regime to abdicate and His executives to escape. Unfortunately, the opposite could also occur.
The uncertainty of the situation has prompted the international community to double the efforts for peace. In addition to the mediation offer of Sudan, those of the Erdogan dictator and the African Union are added. All three are practically failed about birth. Sudanese mediation was sungly refused by Premier Abiy attacking the Sudanese territory of Al-Faashaga (contested by the Amhara region) and then blaming the Sudanese army to have invaded Ethiopia.
Turkish mediation is not credible in terms of the same time Erdogan apparently accepted of supply drones to the Ethiopian military to help them win the war .. regarding that of the UA, the leader of the TPLF: DeBrestion Gebremichael informed the Council Safety and the UN Secretary General: Guterres to reject the indicated mediator: the former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo in a partial judged and very close to the amhara fascist direction. The role of Obasanjo mediator is questioned since Burundi when the mediation of him was openly in favor of the military regime Hutupower of Gitega.
The ethnic hatred and the history of the previous conflicts against Hailee Selaisse and the DERG cancel any possibility of respite and peace interviews. The destiny of the TPLF, Abiy and the Eritrean Isiass AFWERKI dictator depend on a definitive victory and the total annihilation of the enemy. Even in the event of a defeat of the TDF in Amhara and Afar and a reconquest by Mekelle federal, war would not end. The TPLF would return to the mountains to reform its army and attack again.
