Ethiopia. Somali Region rejects mobilization against Tigray.
Somali Region refusal to participate in the imminent offensive against Tigray puts President Mustafa Omar and, consequently, the nationalist leadership Amhara in deep difficulties, representing for all regions of the Ethiopian Federation a dangerous example of defection already see between Sindama and Oromia troops sent to Amhara and Afar regions to support Amhara military offensive.
The efforts of the President of the Somali Region, Mustafa Omar, to persuade the population to send regional forces in support of the offensive of what remains of the federal army against Tigray have been in vain.
“Regional forces do not have a mandate to participate in a civil war. Abiy Ahmed wants to offer domestic and international public opinion an image of unity of all Ethiopian ethnic groups against the Tigrinya “terrorists”. Despite strong pressure from Mustafa Omar and the Amhara leadership we refuse to send our police, militia and special forces to fight a war that does not concern the Somali people and especially we refuse to participate in the genocidal crusade orchestrated by the Amhara leaders ”. This is the dry and unequivocal statement by Mohamed Olad, one of the opposition leaders of the Somali Region.
The opposition’s refusal received the support of the “Elders” (the old sages). “We do not want to be involved in a bloody campaign against the population of Tigray wanted by the chauvinist Amhara leadership” specifies the brief statement from the Elders. Tracing the balance of power existing in the Somali societies of Somalia and Somaliland, the Elders representing the various clans are the basic structure of power of the Somali Region and no president can remain in power against their will or take decisions contrary to Elders vision and interests.
The refusal to participate in the imminent offensive against Tigray puts President Mustafa Omar and, consequently, the nationalist leadership Amhara in deep difficulties, representing for all regions of the Ethiopian Federation a dangerous example of defection.
“The federal model allows the individual region a strong autonomy and the possibility of having its own regional defense system made up of police, armed forces comparable to the American National Guard and self-defense militias. These armed forces have capabilities and equipment inferior to the federal army and exclusively territorial defense tasks. They can be use in defense of the country in case of external aggression. In no case can they be used by a political dispute to repress opponents or so-called rebel regions, to consolidate power through the civil war ”, explains an Ethiopian lawyer of Somali origin who was contacted.
Somali Region defection puts the Amhara leadership in serious difficulty, as it is associated with serious problems concerning the other regions, which until now have offered men to the federal army: Sindama, Oromia and Southern Nation. Sindama region opposition parties and civil society have opposed the (already implemented) sending of their troops to fight in Tigray, citing considerations similar to those raised by the Somali Region.
The troops from Oromia now present in the Afar region bordering Tigray give clear signs of not wanting to be involved in the offensive that the Amhara leadership is preparing against the Tigray. Oromo troops are expected to invade the “rebel” region from the north, while the feds, Amahara militias and Sindama and Southern Nation forces from the south.
News arrives that Oromo troops have been persuaded to go to Afar to patrol the borders with Djibouti. Once they reached their destination, they received the order to be ready to attack the Tigray, triggering their refusal.
Our local sources claim that Oromo soldiers in Afar no longer respond to orders from their officers. Last night the Kaluwan barracks (Afar Zone 4) which host Oromo troops waiting to be used in Tigray, was the scene of a clash between the Oromo soldiers and their officers who started shooting at each other. The provisional toll is 10 dead and 20 injured. Talks are currently underway between the federal government and the Oromo troops in Afar. The Amhara leadership is very cautious in order to prevent an extended rebellion of the Oromo soldiers.
The call to arms aimed at regional forces has two objectives. The first of propaganda, the second dictated by military needs. The Amhara leadership wants to convey the message that all Ethiopian ethnic groups are joining forces to stop TDF and TPLF, considered a deadly threat to the unity of the country. Reinforcing the federal army with regional troops becomes a necessity to deal with any offensive or defensive action as the army was decimate during the 8 months of conflict in Tigray and its ally, Eritrea, withdrew most of its troops from Ethiopia. The almost complete withdrawal of Eritrean troops, was confirmed by Michelle Gavin, senior researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations Africa Studies.
Technically, at present, the federal army and the Amhara militias are unable to sustain fights with a large margin of victory. Reinforcements from other regions are made up of inexperienced, poorly trained and poorly armed soldiers who are downright demoralized and not convinced to risk their lives fighting the TDF forces.
The call to arms addressed to the regions is based on two fragile deceptions. The first depicts the Tigray Defenses Forces as those who broke the truce by attacking cities and areas of the Amhara region. The second depicts the federal government forced to resume the conflict to stop the recruitment of child soldiers by the TDF.
The two deceptions make water on all sides. The ceasefire was unilaterally declare by Addis Ababa after suffering military defeat in Tigray. The TPLF has set conditions for joining it. Among them: the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Tigray, unconditional access to humanitarian aid and start not peace negotiations between the TPLF and the Prosperity Party, but of a national debate inclusive of all political forces and social representatives for find a common political solution to the Ethiopian crisis. These conditions were rejected by the central government. The recent TDF military conquests exclusively concern territories of Tigray that were illegally annexed by force from the Amahara region in November 2020.
The deception of child soldiers in the TDF ranks was short-lived, as it was based on counterfeit photographs and fakenews. With the exception of a handful of Western journalists who validated this fakenews, for lack of knowledge of the country or for collusion with the genocidal policy of the Amhara regime; the complaint of the use of child soldiers has not been taken into consideration by the United Nations, EU, United States and even by the associations that deal with children such as Save the Children or UNICEF which have not registered the presence of children in the ranks of the TDF but they are worried about the disastrous and precarious situations in which the children of Tigray find themselves due to the conflict and the violence suffered by Eritrean, federal and Amhara militia soldiers.
The UNICEF annual report on children affected by war in 2020: “Children and Armed Conflict” published on Monday 21 June, details serious violations against children such as recruitment, forced labor and rape in 10 African countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon , Democratic Republic of the Congo, Libya, Mali, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan. Ethiopia is not even mentioned.
Famous African Affairs analyst Lauren Blanchard (@laurenBinDC) two days ago contacted UNICEF and Save The Children about central government allegations of TDF use of child soldiers. Both organizations raised a number of concerns about the serious threats to children caused by the conflict, highlighting security concerns, but did not report on the use of child soldiers in Tigray.
Having discovered the deceptions to induce other Ethiopian regions to participate in the defense of the far-right Amhara leadership, the populations and their social and political representatives of the various regions are opposing this call to arms. According to the Ethiopian lawyer of Somali origin contacted, there are various reasons for this refusal. No ethnic group intends to help Amhara leadership to consolidate its national power which would result in the cancellation of federalism and the subjecting of the regions to a mono-ethnic and authoritarian central government.
There is also an awareness of the military unpreparedness of the regional defense forces or militias. Everyone knows TPLF military preparation, which in all these years in power has in fact created an army within the national army by conveying the best units along with the best weapons and training. In the event of a military defeat, the regions that sent troops could face retaliation and be exclude from a new governing coalition.
Deceptions and ethnic hatred propaganda begin to turn out to be blunt weapons blatantly unsuitable for hiding the reality of a military defeat suffered. In the world of diplomacy, anyone who starts a conflict and is unable to win it loses prestige and credibility. This is the main reason that pushed Russia not to implement the recent military cooperation agreements with the Amhara government. Unlikely the possibility that Mr. Putin will send Russian military experts (read mercenaries) to support the Ethiopian federal army.
Somali Region clear refusal to participate in the umpteenth criminal military adventure of the Amhara leadership, the manifest disobedience of the Oromo regional troops to fight in Tigray and the opposition to this adventure expressed by Sindama region opposition, represent the failure of the plan of the true and undisputed Amhara Warlords: Agegnehu Teshager and Temesgen Tiruneh.
A plan, studied too quickly, based on the hope that the various regional sections of the Prosperity Party would impose the will of the central government. Since 2020 the various regional PPs have assumed control of the regions through institutional subterfuges and tricks and not through real popular support. June 21 elections did nothing to create this popular support in reality. The positions taken by the regional oppositions carry more weight than the complicity of the regional governments under the control of the PP as the population identifies as their representatives the opposition parties and their traditional leaders, not the Prosperity Party that is leading whole country to the doomsday.
