Ethiopia. Second Christmas of the war. No peace foreseen by the Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki.

For the second consecutive year, Ethiopia celebrates Christmas in the blood and horror of the civil war. There is no glimmer of peace on the horizon due to Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki who has taken control of Ethiopia and aims at that of the Horn of Africa. The next country in the sights of the dictator of Asmara: Somalia.

Today 25 December is the second Holy Christmas that Ethiopia celebrates in a state of war. The situation will not change for January 6th. Also during Gennà 2014 (the Ethiopian Orthodox Christmas) will be celebrated as the previous one of 2013 (2020 according to the Gregorian calendar).

Christmas of 2020 and 2021 present similar situations apart from the substantial difference that in 2020 the war had started a month and a half ago while now we are 13 months of conflict with a clear orientation of genocide.

On 25 December 2020, the Amhara fascist regime celebrated Christmas in a position of strength. Occupied Tigray and forced the TPLF into a guerrilla struggle in the mountains, Abiy, the Amhara leadership and the great puppeteer, the Eritrean dictator: Isaias Afwerki were convinced they had won. Also this December 25 the regime nurtures the same conviction.

After forcing the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Army to withdraw from the Afar and Amhara region thanks to the support of the Eritrean army and drones sold by nations unworthy of being counted among civilized, democratic countries respectful of human rights, the regime attacked the Tigray.

The attack was concentrated in South Tigray (a territory disputed for decades with the neighbouring Amhara region which considers it its eastern province) and in Western Tigray, for the most part illegally annexed to Eritrea. The Eritrean divisions have entered deeply into the two areas supported by intense drone bombardments on military posts, urban settlements and against the last existing infrastructures. The sudden decision on Thursday by Eritrean dictator Afwerki to suspend the military activities of his army across Tigray forced yesterday Premier Abiy to declare the offensive is suspended and a ceasefire. Without Eritrean troops, the Amhara regime is virtually defenceless. Drones alone are not enough.

For its part, the TPLF has announced to the United Nations its willingness to start peace talks, however placing a series of demands that are impossible for the fascist Amhara regime to accept. Among them the withdrawal of Eritrean troops in Western and South Tigray. In response Amhara fascist regime has heavy bombarded Mekelle.

The situation returned to May 2021. Tigray is completely surrounded and isolated from the rest of the world. All land and air borders are controlled by the Eritrean army. The blockade of humanitarian aid will continue as it is part of the genocide strategy in place against the Tegaru people. It is likely that a series of drone air strikes will be conducted this week or next to destroy the last remaining infrastructure in the rebel region to make the lives of 7 million people impossible and convince the TPLF to capitulate unconditionally.

Now, with Tigray encircled, Afwerki must expend the energies of his army to break the resistance of the Oromo Liberation Army which still controls vast liberated areas in Oromia. Our sources report that a major offensive in Oromia has reached the final stages of its preparation.

Is peace now possible? This is the desire of all of us. Unfortunately, a desire that is an externalization of our hopes rather than a concrete possibility.

The Amhara leadership cannot afford peace with Tigray, perhaps by granting independence. Such peace would be a sign of weakness in the eyes of the Ethiopians. The other 78 ethnic groups would take advantage of it to trigger new rebellions in the hope of obtaining independence in turn, primarily the Oromia.

The Amhara leadership wants Ethiopia united under its ethnic rule. Many analysts “farengi” (foreigners in Amharic) have hypothesized a future of balkanization of the country. A prediction completely out of the war, political context and Ethiopian culture and mentality. Both the Amhara regime and the TPLF and OLA think they will finally conquer power in a context of national unity.

This was the reason for the alliance between TPLF and OLA and the creation in Washington last November of the United Front of the Ethiopian Federalist Forces, a new government structure (to which 7 other regions have joined) that should take the levers of power if he will be able to defeat the dictator Afwerki and what remains of the Ethiopian central government, practically in disarray and defenceless.

The TPLF’s proposal to start peace talks and the ceasefire that Premier Abiy was forced to declare out of the will of Eritrean troops to continue the offensive in Tigray are misleading signs of peace.

The Tigrinya leadership is aware that a Tigray without Ethiopia means insured bankruptcy. In such a scenario, Tigray would be a small, landlocked and insignificant nation surrounded by hostile countries. A country condemned to remain underdeveloped, at the mercy of the humanitarian assistance that deny to the population of its own dignity and constantly threatened by Eritrea and Ethiopia.

The Amhara leadership is aware that an Ethiopia without Tigray would open the doors for the disintegration of the federation. In such a scenario, the leaders, who dream of restoring the glorious splendour of the Amhara Emperors, would only be left with the Amhara region, given that Addis Ababa is located in the heart of Oromia, a region inhabited by 40% of the Ethiopian population that is heading towards a total political, social and cultural rupture against the Amhara leadership.

As evidence of this are the clashes between Eritrean units and Amhara militias against units of the Tigray Defense Force (TDF) in Sudanese territory across the border. These clashes were caused by the attempt to prevent the TDF units stationed in Sudan from reinforcing the units that had withdrawn in Tigray exhausted by the Eritrean offensive and to consolidate positions for the annexation of the Sudanese territories of El Fashaga to the Greater Amhara.

In addition to the political, ethnic and moral divisions between the TPLF, OLA, the Ethiopian Premier and the fascist Amhara leadership, there is another factor, the most important, which prevents the achievement of an honourable and just compromise and peace. The Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki

Currently, the Ethiopian Federal Army does not exist. Its reorganization will not be easy. On the one hand there is a chronic lack of senior officers capable of successfully leading troops, on the other hand there is a reluctance on the part of the population (including Amhara) to enlist to be killed in Tigray, Oromia or other parts of the country where they might new hotbeds of rebellion to the central Amhara power arise. The much-vaunted “patriotic” Amhara and Afar militias are military void. They also played a marginal role during this offensive which began in November. They were mostly used to control the territories conquered by the Eritreans and to massacre civilians. The FANO militia is now very active in ethnic cleansing against the Tegaru in South Tigray to allow for a total process of Amhara colonization of the area.

The only military force available in Ethiopia is the Eritrean army. In Africa whoever holds military power dictates the law, so Afwerki and not the Amhara leadership is ruling Ethiopia at the moment. Afwerki has a deep hatred towards the leaders of the TPLF (including his blood relatives) and against the people of Tigray. However, this hatred did not lead to the decision to continue the offensive in Tigray despite the fact that the TDF is in great difficulty.

Afwerki’s goal is not to destroy the TPLF or to make the fascist Amhara leadership win. His goal is to control Ethiopia by keeping it in a permanent state of war. Only in this way will the tyrant be able to strengthen his influence on the Horn of Africa and emerge from international isolation by becoming one of the main interlocutors (if not the only one capable) of the regional war and political scenario.

Abiy Ahmed Ali, Agegnehu Teshager, Temesgen Tiruneh, Demeke Mekonnen and the entire virtual party: the Prosperity Party have no way of claiming to be an equal partner in this project of regional domination. Due to their military weakness they are reduced to being mere executors of Afwerki’s will. A kind of local government, loyal to Asmara.

Afwerki was not only the leader who avoided the fall of Addis Ababa, inflicting a severe defeat on the democratic forces. He actually controls the entire Ethiopian defence system. He ensures the defence of the capital and the recently reconquered territories. He organizes ethnic clean-ups in the capital against Tegaru and Oromo to make it a mono-ethnic metropolis inhabited by the Amhara alone. He militarily supports the plan for the creation of the Great Amhara, which should include southern Tigray, the Sudanese territories of El Fashaga and northern Oromia.

He is in charge of the Ethiopian secret services and the repressive apparatus of the regime. He controls and manages all the official propaganda of the Amhara regime and that on social media. He is the only credible and reliable interlocutor for the supporters of the Ethiopian regime: China, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Russia, Turkey. Without the certainty of constant intervention by the Eritrean army, these powers would not waste a single moment of their time or a cent of their money in supporting a militarily weak and politically schizophrenic and inadequate ally.

It will take a long time for the Ethiopian government to become autonomous from the dictator Afwerki. This is exactly what Isaias intends to prevent by condemning Ethiopia to a state of permanent war. This policy explains why Isaias gave up destroying retreating TDF units in the first weeks of December. Many cities in Amhara have not seen fighting. There have been agreements between TDF and Eritrean troops for a retreat of the Tigrinis without fighting. This allowed the TPLF to still have its infantry units intact. It is also understood the reason that prompted Isaias to stop the offensive in Tigray two days ago, much to the regret of the Premier for Peace Abiy who already dreamed of the annihilation of the TPLF and the final victory.

Now Afwerki also has ambitions in Somalia. Western diplomatic sources warn of Eritrean plans to create a dictatorship controlled by Asmara through its Somali puppet: President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed known as Farmaajo (cheese in Somali language) whose presidential term expired on February 8, 2021. The elections that were due hold on July 25 were first postponed to October and now to a later date, next year, maybe …

The Somali political opposition (often associated with armed militias) is on the verge of rebelling against the central government of Mogadishu. In April, Somali army units entered the capital clashing with units still loyal to Farmaajo, and then retreated on May 6, 2021. Now the feeling of rebellion within the armed forces is even stronger. Like Abiy and the Amhara leadership, Farmaajo is also aware that the only possibility of remaining in power is to submit to the hegemony of Afwerki and Eritrea, the only regional military force capable of protecting him if civil war breaks out in Somalia next year.

Ethiopia begins 2022 like the previous year. An ephemeral victory of an increasingly weaker regime that is progressively and irremediably losing political autonomy and national sovereignty. An ongoing genocide, the one against Tigray and brutal ethnic cleansing in Oromia to force the Oromo into unconditional ethnic submission. A project that is fuelling strong political, ethnic and military opposition in Oromia, the main region of the country. Resentments and willingness to resist Amhara domination by 78 different ethnic groups. An economy destroyed by the Covid19 pandemic (now out of control) and absurd arms purchases. Abiy is now buying another 20 drones from Turkey. With no more money, he is committing the natural resources available to have these other drones.

Ethiopia was excluded from the privileged trade agreements with the United States (AGORA) by order of President Joe Biden. A severe blow to the national economy that will not be easily replaced by Russia China and other allies. The two emerging powers of the former communist bloc in all other African crises: from Burundi to Central Africa, have shown that they do not want to go beyond military involvement and political support within the United Nations Security Council.

Moscow and Beijing will not offer Abiy the millions of dollars that the West has always donated to Ethiopia for 30 years, nor will they make favourable trade deals. Beyond the Win Win propaganda among third world countries, the Russian and Chinese concept of trade in Africa remains tied to the predatory and colonial logic of the robbery of natural resources to strengthen their industries.

There are rumours that the TPLF may receive anti-drone equipment from the United States. Equipment already present in the US military base in Djibouti. These are mobile radar and laser stations capable of interrupting communications between the drone and the remote piloting command or satellite control. There will be great difficulty in getting these new defence weapons into Tigray, surrounded by the Eritrean army. These difficulties can be overcome, however, given that the previous total siege in May 2021 did not prevent the TPLF from receiving large quantities of weapons and new recruits from Sudan. Weapons offered by Egypt, the United States, Great Britain and Sudan. They are now joined by Saudi Arabia as opposed to Turkey, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

This is the scenario of Christmas 2021. A scenario that destroys any small hope for peace. In Ethiopia also for the whole of next year there will be room only for war, massacres, ethnic cleansing and genocide if the international community does not intervene militarily and in an energetic and decisive way. Christmas Eve passed with more bloodshed. The TDF launched a counter offensive in the Kobo — Alamata areas to prevent the Amhara annexation of southern Tigray. The fighting is still ongoing with serious loss of life on both sides.