Ethiopia. Regime change TPLF strategy with the backing of the United States and France.
After the conquest of the strategic city of Lalibela in the Amhara region, the TPLF Tegaru leadership refuses the American request to withdraw its troops from Afar and Amhara, appealing to the other regions of the Ethiopian federation to form a government of national unity without the Prosperity Party. The TPLF threatens to march on Addis Ababa. From Washington and Paris seem arrive the greenlight to TPLF.
Samantha Power USAID director’s mission to Ethiopia was characterized by a high dose of arrogance and dialogue between the deaf, demonstrating that important decisions to resolve the Ethiopian crisis have already been taken by the United States and France. Diplomatic declarations of preferring a peaceful solution, stating that the Ethiopian crisis cannot be resolved at the military level, should not be given too much attention. The peace initiative promoted by Sudan with full support from Washington and Paris also seems to be short of breath. Peace declarations and initiatives maybe result obligatory gestures of circumstance.
The plans appear to be diametrically opposite. There is a distinct feeling that the Western powers are aiming for regime change in Ethiopia and Eritrea. The international media announcement of the TDF’s liberation of the historic Amhara city of Lalibela (which is home to a Unesco world heritage site) is a clear example. Another defeat and humiliation inflicted on a demoralized federal army and now unable to contain the enemy.
Prosperity Party regime has asked the Tigrinya armed forces not to destroy the historical monuments and ancient rock churches of Lalibela, which must be considered the heritage not exclusive to the Amhara but to the entire Ethiopian people. This request is paradoxical given that in the first phase of the conflict (November 2020 — June 2021) the federal and Eritrean armies systematically looted and destroyed millenary churches. At the time Abiy did not consider these monuments as assets of all Ethiopians but as Tigrinya symbols to be destroyed. Our sources claim that the Tigray soldiers are not vandalizing the monuments in Lalibela or take revenge on civilians.
With the conquest of Lalibela, the Ethiopian conflict enters the phase of escalation. A gigantic and bloody showdown where only one winner can emerge thanks to the strength of weapons. Yesterday, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) renewed its conditions for joining the ceasefire declared by the central government after suffering the inglorious defeat of Mekelle last June. As was to be expected, a strictly policy regarding post-conflict government has been added to these conditions.
The TPLF hopes for the creation of a grand governing coalition together with the Oromo and other regions of the federation after the Prosperity Party regime and Premier Abiy have been defeated and removed. The TPLF also informed that it did not consider the request made by the Power to withdraw its regular army from the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara. A statement that, strangely, did not arouse reactions from Washington and Paris, reinforcing the feeling that the two Western powers are playing a secret game in concert with the TPLF.
Getachew K. Reda, adviser to the Tigray Presidency and member of TPLF Executive Committee , in a public statement affirms that the acceptance of the conditions for the ceasefire and the beginning of the peace negotiations is the only way forward out of the quagmire into which the country has sunk. Mr. Reda, calls on the international community to act against the “twin tyrants” of the Horn of Africa, referring to Abiy Ahmed Ali and Isaias Afwerki.
In response, the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry said that the TPLF’s lack of cooperation in the ceasefire declared at the end of last June is pushing the government “to change its defensive stance which was taken for the sake of the unilateral humanitarian ceasefire. “ Premier Abiy has threatened to “deploy the entire defensive capacity of the Federal Army (ENDF)” if Addis Ababa’s openings for a peaceful resolution of the conflict are not reciprocated.
Amhara regional government has declared that it is preparing a military offensive to regain control of the city of Lalibela and drive the Tigrinya army beyond the borders of the Amhara region. The head of peace and security of the Amhara region, Sema Tiruneh told the national media that the time has come for the Amhara people to crush the terrorist group TPLF. He has invite again i civilians to enlist en masse to fight TPLF. Previous calls for general mobilization have had little success in both Amhara and Addis Ababa. It is one thing to protest angrily in the streets chanting genocidal slogans against the Tigray, it is one other thing to risk your life fighting experienced, well-trained and well-armed soldiers.
In response, Getachew K Reda told the Associated Press that Tigrinya forces would warmly welcome the Amhara forces offensive. About federal army, Reda wished to specify that the Ethiopian armed forces are in a disastrous situation while the Abiy regime is now on the verge of survival. No missiles, drones from Turkey or Russia, no civilian recruits or units of the Eritrean army will be able to change the outcome of the conflict, only delay it by a few months.
The military and political tactics of the TPLF seem to have radically changed after Power’s visit. The offensives launched in Afar and Amhara were initially justified as an attempt to break the encirclement of the Tigray and allow the influx of humanitarian aid. Now the TPLF is demanding a radical regime change in Addis Ababa and is threatening to march on the Ethiopian capital.
In reality, the intention to overthrow the Prosperity Party regime and, if necessary, march on Addis Ababa are part of the original plans of the TPLF after it succeeded in liberating Tigray. The offensive in Afar is aime at blocking the transport corridor Djibouti — Addis Ababa and the one in Amhara is aimed at defeating the last armed forces left in the regime before targeting the capital.
This strategy is based on realpolitik. The leaders of the TPLF are well aware that a peace where coexistence with the Prosperity Party is not realistic. It would only create a truce that would allow the federal army to reorganize to resume the conflict. Even the prospect of an independent Tigray is out of the question despite the promises of TPLF leaders to hold a referendum on the issue so that the Tegaru people can decide their future. Western allies have been extremely clear in their behind-the-scenes talks. Ethiopia must remain united and federal, aiming for regime change. At a later stage, efforts aimed at regime change will be direct towards Eritrea. The United States and France intend to take advantage of the dangerous Ethiopian crisis to reaffirm their hegemony over the Horn of Africa region by creating new governments and political structures that are more favorable to them.
From the point of view of Washington and Paris, the Ethiopian Premier was reject as credible interlocutor because he made two unforgivable mistakes. Failing to wage a blitzkrieg in Tigray and quickly resolve the crisis that destabilizes the region. Having clearly exposed his attempts at alliances with Turkey and Russia, countries that are destined to replace Western influence and guarantee victory against the TPLF. The Eritrean dictator also made two unforgivable mistakes. To be the promoter and co-author of the civil war in Tigray and to express his intentions to become the leader of the region in terms of imperial expansion policy.
The civil war in Ethiopia gets dirtier with each passing day. The crimes against humanity committed by federal and Eritrean troops are exposed to public opinion only at the politically and militarily opportune moment, following a much more refined and effective communication strategy than that the one suggested to Prosperity Party by the Chinese advisers.
The news of the discovery of more than 40 Tigrinya bodies on the banks of the river in Sudan, proving extrajudicial executions, was release during Power’s visit to Khartoum. The discovery of the massacre dates back to a week earlier but was not immediately disclosed. The same is true of the persecutions and decimations of Tigrinya units within the federal army.
It is estimate that about 17,000 federal soldiers originally from Tigray were arrested a few weeks before the attack on the “rebel” north region on November 3, 2020. The wave of arrests was intended to prevent any rebellion of entire combat units within the ENDF fighting in Tigray. Several Tigrinya soldiers have been tortured and killed in federal prisons in these 9 months. The TPLF was aware of the arrests when they occurred. They were one of the many rash signals committed by the Prosperity Party regime that made TPLF leadership understand the imminent military attack, thus giving time to prepare the defensive tactics that destroyed the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies. Yet this news was made public one day after Power’s visit to Ethiopia, with the clear intention of strengthening the decision to total war against the central government. The figures provided (17,000 soldiers) may have been inflated for propaganda purposes even though the death toll appears to be high.
The nationalist fanaticism and thirst for power of Abiy Ahmed Ali, Agegnehu Teshager and Temesgen Tiruneh, facilitates TPLF communication war. After flooding the web with fakenews and racial hatred through thousands of fake accounts on Twitter and Facebook coordinated by the cyber control agency INSA, they are now making public the decision of the military court of first instance to sentence Tegaru federal soldiers arrested 9 months ago, to death and life in prison. They are all accused of conspiring with the TPLF to overthrow the Addis Ababa government. Evidence is obviously almost non-existent and the defense lawyers offered by the government to the “traitor” soldiers, speak the same language as the prosecution lawyers.
This news only reinforces the image of a bloodthirsty and ruthless central government and, in parallel, the image that the TPLF has built of a regular army that is fighting for the survival of its ethnic group and to free the Ethiopia from the Prosperity Party. At the same time, the United Nations declares that there are attempts by the Ethiopian federal army to arrest the soldiers of Tigrinya origin present in the Ethiopian units deployed in the UN peacekeeping missions in Africa, which now enjoy international protection.
The accusations by the Addis Ababa government that NGOs allegedly supplying arms and ammunition to the regular army of Tigray have also turned out to be a gross error. It is obvious and evident that the Tigrinya forces are receiving red quantities of weapons and ammunition that allow them to obtain important victories on the front. The Addis Ababa government just made a mistake in identifying the supply channels by placing the blame on international NGOs. The channels do exist, but Addis was unable to identify them correctly by playing the enemy’s game. The boycott of humanitarian assistance in the hope of preventing war supplies only worsens Ethiopia’s international reputation.
The Sudan Peace Initiative was promoted by Biden and Macron purely for propaganda purposes as both Western leaders know it is impossible for the Prosperity Party to sit down in peace negotiations. The central government, by signing a peace agreement with the TPLF, would send the whole nation the signal of its extreme political and military weakness. This would encourage other ethnic groups to open rebellion and secessionist movements starting with Oromia.
At best, a peace with the TPLF would mark the political end of the PP. It would be very difficult for this political party without a real popular base to continue to govern the country after sham elections and, above all, after unleashing a horrible civil war that it failed to win.
For the leadership of the Prosperity Party, peace negotiations cannot be considered an honorable way out. From their point of view it is more convenient to continue the conflict in the hope of perpetuating it as in Syria if it is impossible for them to win it. Sitting at the negotiating table would mean for Abiy the admission of defeat and, worse still, the recognition of the TPLF as a legitimate military political force and not as a “rebel” and “terrorist” formation as the nationalist rhetoric Amhara currently portrays.
The TPLF’s declaration of wanting to continue the war until the overthrow of the regime to replace it with a government of national unity received no note of protest from Washington and Paris, despite the withdrawal of Tigrinya forces from Afar and Amhara were clear conditions of the peace roadmap drawn up by both Western powers.
“The fate of the Ethiopian and Eritrean regimes has already been decided by the United States and France who prefer to focus on a leadership that has been experimented for almost 30 years: that of the TPLF. Now it’s just a matter of time. Washington and Paris are tripling their efforts as the ultimate goal is to stabilize Ethiopia and the region, to prevent Putin and Erdoğan from entering the scene, and balancing the score with North Korea in an African sauce regime: the Eritrea ”explains an African Union military observer protected by anonymity.
Our source observations are confirmed by Samantha Power statements endorsed by the White House. “If we do not see in the very short tIME the improvements that can bring to solve the crisis in Ethiopia, I think that the Biden Administration will have few choices to take clearer measures to impose peace” said Power a few hours ago. During her visit did not met the Ethiopian Premier. Mr. Abiy apologized for other mandatory commitments that would have prevented him from meeting USAID director.
Power’s statements such as her visit to Sudan and Ethiopia are part of a well-planned strategy. Samantha plays the role of defender of humanitarian assistance and civilians, calling on the international community to defend dignity and human lives. She is actually President Biden’s spokesperson. Never before has a director of a state humanitarian agency been seen talking about war and peace.
European diplomatic sources say the White House is determined to implement regime change. By allying himself with France, Biden forced the European Union to align itself with the American policy against the Ethiopian regime by ordering the suspension of European financial assistance. He also imposed his policy in the Horn of Africa on those European governments that wavered and timidly supported Abiy. Among these governments was the Italian one.
Within the BIDEN administration, the option of using military force to enforce peace in Ethiopia is seen as a viable and possible option. At the moment, the focus is on military strengthening of the TPLF but direct military intervention is not excluded. European military experts agree that a large portion of the Ethiopian federal army has been annihilate or capture.
