Ethiopia. How can the Eritrean army withdraw from Tigray and simultaneously launch the third military offensive against the TPLF?
On the same day, on the eve of Easter, the Ethiopian government announces the beginning of the withdrawal of Eritrean troops from Tigray and the third offensive is triggered with the aim of winning the final victory over the TPLF. An offensive carried out mainly by the troops of Asmara. Evidence arises of a secret plan that turns the announced withdrawal of the Eritrean army into a soap opera.
Saturday 03 April 2021. Ethiopian authorities declare that Eritrean troops have started to withdraw from Tigray, where they are fighting alongside Ethiopian forces and Fano Amhara fascist militias, from 03 November 2020. “Eritreans have now started evacuating Tigray and Ethiopian forces have taken over the surveillance of the national border” the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. The announcement of the withdrawal of the Eritrean divisions is in fact an obligatory act in the face of international pressure against this absurd conflict, now unmanageable for Ethiopian Premier Abiy Ahmed Ali.
Voice of America, in giving the news, underlines that at the moment it is not clear how many Eritrean troops have withdrawn from Tigray and how many are still operating in the region ravaged by the civil war. The Tigrinya population and the Eritrean opposition remain skeptical about the withdrawal of Asmara’s troops. TPLF spokesperson: Getachew Reda in a series of interviews with Al Jazeera, BBC, CNN states: “A week after the Ethiopian Prime Minister announced the withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Tigray, we see that the Asmara divisions have not left the region and show no intention of leaving. Indeed, since the announcement of Abiy’s tweet about Isaias’ agreement to withdraw his forces, Eritrea has increased the influx of its forces into Tigray by leaps and bounds. The withdrawal of Eritrean troops is unthinkable for the survival of Abiy and the Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki ”.
Eritrean troops withdrawal announcement comes in parallel with the news of a third military offensive in Tigray, which began on the eve of Easter and carried out mainly by the Eritrean army. Main objective: to annihilate the resistance of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front — TPLF, securing the final victory. According to local sources, the offensive would concern the mountainous area north-east of the region, after Adigrat and would involve between 50,000 and 70,000 Eritrean soldiers supported by the Ethiopian military aviation. Addis Ababa federal units and the fascist Fano Amhara militias would have a marginal role and would be mainly employed to maintain the position of the occupied territories. The north west of Tigray was effectively annexed to Eritrea and the south to the neighboring Ethiopian region of the Amhara. African Union diplomatic sources, confirm privately, the information received from local sources.
The offensive was prepared in great detail simultaneously with the announcement by Ethiopian Premier Abiy Ahmed Ali of the withdrawal of Eritrean troops from Tigray. For three weeks, the Eritrean General Staff had been concentrating divisions in Adigrat, which had been transformed as a starting point for the offensive. According to testimonies from the Eritrean diaspora, the Asmara government has also sent thousands of young people aged 16 to 17 to fight in Tigray.
The third offensive reinforces the belief that is gaining ground among international diplomatic circles that the Ethiopian federal government has a well-defined plan that modifies according to circumstances but aimed at continuing the conflict in Tigray. The promises of a joint investigation to ascertain the war crimes committed and the withdrawal of the Eritrean troops, would be just the decoy designed to calm the United States and the European Union (among the main economic partners of Addis together with China) and buy time hoping to win the TPLF in Tigray.
This belief is also reinforced by two major events of the last few days, extremely significant. The Addis Ababa government’s rejection of the American request for a ceasefire in Tigray. “I insisted on a unilateral ceasefire declaration, something the prime minister disagreed with, and I pressed for a quick shift towards full political dialogue on Tigray’s future political structure,” the senator told reporters Chris Coons during a press conference on Thursday. Coons is a close ally of Biden and a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He has just returned from a short trip to the Horn of Africa nation, seeking to end nearly five months of fighting between the Ethiopian National Defense Forces and the TPLF.
In reinforcement of the American position, comes the declaration of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the G7: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Great Britain and the United States, which explicitly calls for a ceasefire in Tigray, the launch an investigation into the crimes committed and a national dialogue involving all Ethiopian political forces. These measures, underline the G7, are necessary to allow the carrying out credible elections (scheduled for next July) and ensure the success of a broad national reconciliation process.
The tough stance of the G7 would be the result of a long and troubled diplomatic job by Italy, wanted by former Premier Conte and continued by Draghi. An indirect confirmation of these “rumors” comes from the recent statements by the Deputy Director General of MAECI for Sub-Saharan African countries, Giuseppe Mistretta (former Ambassador to Ethiopia) made during a hearing held at the Chamber’s Foreign Affairs Commission on the situation in Tigray. Mistretta illustrated “a very worrying picture, which evolves every day”, referring to “a low intensity war” still underway in Tigray, after the military intervention last November, between TPLF forces and federal forces. The line adopted by Italy since December 2020 is very clear: withdrawal of Eritrean troops, ceasefire, independent investigations and national reconciliation dialogue involving all Ethiopian political, religious and civil society forces.
The second event that reinforces the existence of a plan to continue the conflict is the continuation of the denier policy adopted by the Ethiopian Premier in the face of accusations of war crimes and ethnic cleansing. BBC and CNN broadcast a shocking video relating to the massacre carried out by Ethiopian federal soldiers in the Mahibere Diego Adet locality. The footage shows the round-up, looting, mass executions of civilians and the abuse of corpses, all accompanied by ethnically offensive language. Premier Abiy questioned the authenticity of the video, denying that Ethiopian troops committed this crime.
The denial of the evidence seriously undermines the alleged will expressed by the Premier himself to facilitate a joint investigation into what has happened and what is happening in the conflict in Tigray. Unfortunately, denial is necessary for two reasons. The first, the Mahibere Diego Adet massacre, disproves Abiy’s earlier claims that it was exclusively Eritrean soldiers who committed war crimes.
Addis Ababa’s diplomatic efforts are intense, aimed at avoiding at all costs the application of Article 41 of the UN Security Council. The article establishes the need to take all necessary measures to restore peace and security in the event of serious war crimes and ethnic cleansing committed by one or both warring parties to a conflict. Article 41 represented the legal cover for NATO military interventions in Yugoslavia in the 1990s and Libya in 2011. The dubious withdrawal of Eritrean troops is part of these efforts.
The information site of the Eritrean opposition: Eritrea Hub has published the terms of a secret agreement entered into between Abiy and Afwerki during the recent visit of the Ethiopian Premier to Asmara. The agreement also provides for the simulation of the withdrawal of Eritrean troops, disguised in reality within the Ethiopian federal army. This deal further deteriorates Abiy’s credibility.
Below are the salient points of the secret agreement signed in Asmara, after receiving confirmation from diplomatic circles of the African Union on the veracity of the information provided by the Eritrea Hub site following an internal report from Eritrea that was the subject of a leak. The report concerns the tricks agreed by the two Warlords to continue to ensure the necessary Eritrean presence in Tigray, while making the whole world believe that Eritrean troops are withdrawing.
These are 7 highlights of the diabolical plan.
1. No plans to withdraw Eritrean troops from Ethiopia. The various Ethiopian press releases have the task of creating an artificial truth to calm the Western powers. The Eritrean forces will not leave Tigray as the only ones capable of militarily defeating the TPLF.
2. The 12 Eritrean Division currently in Tigray is to be immediately assimilated to the federal army. This integration will be followed by the rest of the Eritrean forces that will come under Ethiopian command.
3. All the uniforms of the Eritrean army in Tigray will immediately change to Ethiopian Defense Force, the Ethiopian federal army.
4. Doctor Abraham (of Amhara ethnicity, security / espionage expert and Abiy advisor) will be responsible for the camouflage operation, coordinating the military operations of the two armies against the TPLF and aligning the necessary technological and satellite infrastructure of both. the countries.
5. On the Eritrean side, Brigadier General Simon Gebredingel has been assigned to be the counterpart of Doctor Abraham.
6. The current generals of the Eritrean army will be forced to retire and replaced by Ethiopians.
7. Talks for a future federation that unites in one country Ethiopia and Eritrea will start soon
From the various moves and counter-moves of the Ethiopian Premier he is convinced that all the actors of this horrible and absurd war are preparing for a long conflict. Conditions for civilians are dire, with famine a growing danger. Tigray’s entrenched resistance, combined with Ethiopian and Eritrean authorities’ determination to keep TPLF leaders out of power, is all leading to long-lasting devastation.
With a decisive battlefield victory for both sides a distant prospect, the parties should consider a cessation of hostilities that allows for expanded access to humanitarian aid. This first practical step would reduce the suffering of civilians and ideally pave the way for a return to dialogue along the way.
Unfortunately, a ceasefire and the necessary dialogue are difficult goals to achieve. Already the TPLF mentions independence. Getachew Reda, interviewed by Al-Jazeera, (https://www.aljazeera.com/program/upfront/2021/4/2/is-independence-from-ethiopia-the-tplfs-endgame-in-tigray ) states that he cannot decide the outcome of the war: it depends on the tigers. “I’m not ruling out an independent state, it’s probably the most viable option.”
