Ethiopia. Democratic forces are advancing on all fronts. Final target: Addis Ababa
ENDF October offensive ordered by Premier Abiy Ahmed Ali was to annihilate Tigray and Oromia rebel forces. Not only has it failed but the enemy is now at the gates of the capital: Addis Ababa. The regime is living its last hours but does not give up on carrying out massacres of civilians. Thousands of Ethiopian citizens of Tigrinya origin are being arrested and killed in Addis Ababa in these hours. The national state of emergency has been declared while Abiy and the Amhara leadership are thinking about the possibility of escaping so as not to have to appear before the court for crimes against humanity.
Exactly one year ago, on November 3, 2020, Nobel Peace Laureate Abiy Ahmed Ali attacked the Tigray region to militarily resolve a political dispute with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front — TPLF in power since 1991 within a coalition of government in which Abiy had held national security command posts for ten years. At the time, the Ethiopian Premier defined the invasion of Tigray as a “simple police operation against a terrorist group” hiding the massive military intervention of a foreign country: Ethiopia. On November 28, 2020, he declared victory by stating that the TPLF had been annihilated.
After 12 months, characterized by unprecedented violence against civilians throughout the country and a genocide in Tigray, the TPLF, together with the Oromia Liberation Army, is on the doorstep of the capital Addis Ababa. The hours of Amhara fascist regime and Abiy Ahmed Ali are numbered.
The federal army offensive (ENDF) that began in October has failed like all previous ones. There are four main reasons. Total incapacity of military strategy of the Army General Staff in the hands of Generals who are politically loyal to the regime but not adequate to manage a war. Inexperience of hastily recruited and poorly trained soldiers after the federal army was destroyed in Tigray between April and May 2021. Most of them, minors (between 14 and 16) or very young, between 19 and 21 years old. All children forcibly torn from school desks and thrown on the front to be massacred by experienced veterans of the Tigray Regional Army (TDF).
The failure to support the Eritrean troops who preferred to protect their borders, perhaps considering that Amhara fascist regime and its spokesman: Premier Abiy Ahmed Ali, had no chance of winning. The schizophrenic and irrational use of military aviation. The ENDF had an undisputed air superiority while the TDF did not possess sufficient means to counter the attacks of MIGs, bombers and war drones bought from China, the Saudi Arab Emirates, Iran, Morocco and Turkey.
Instead of ensuring the necessary air cover for ground troops, Premier Abiy ordered a cowardly campaign of pure terror by bombing cities and highly populated neighbourhoods in Tigray, also targeting religious complexes including the Don Bosco Center in Mekelle. These indiscriminate bombings have produced an avalanche of dead and wounded but have been deleterious to the ongoing land offensive in the nearby Amhara region. The army of kids he had sent to fight the TDF found themselves without air cover and mercilessly subjected to easy target practice.
These mistakes allowed the TPLF to turn the situation in its favor. As of October 28, Tigrinya forces liberated the strategic cities of Dessie and Kombolcha, although the federal government still pathetically disputes this claim. On November 1, the federal army attempted a counter offensive to recapture the two cities, finding itself in front of a nasty surprise. Two divisions of the Oromia Liberation Army (OLA) attacked the federal army from behind and annihilated it, while the TDF swept away the resistance of the fascist Amhara militia named Fano, responsible for crimes against humanity in Tigray since November 2020 to May 2021.
Simultaneously with the surprise in the Amhara, the OLA launched an offensive on the entire Oromia region, conquering one city after another without encountering particular resistance from the federal forces still loyal to the Amhara regime of the Prosperity Party now known by all as Poverty Party. Now the two armies (Tigrinya and Oromo) have joined at the localities of Bati and Habry in the Amhara. An impressive shock force of about 80,000 well-armed and trained men.
The two joint staffs have decided not to commit their troops to conquer the capital of Amhara: Bahir Dar and the historic capital Gondar, but to aim directly at Addis Ababa to overthrow the regime and end the civil war. Every day that passes thousands of people, mostly civilians, die as a result of the murderous madness of the Nobel Peace Prize Premier.
General Oromo Gammachiis Aboye told the BBC that OLA troops have surrounded Addis Ababa. They will launch the final attack in the caming days when the Tigrinya divisions will arrive in reinforcement. The TDF and OLA were joined by another 10,000 militiamen from the Gambella regions (borders with South Sudan) and Benishangul-Gumuz Region where the mega GERD dam stands. Diplomatic sources inform of the probable presence of mercenaries sent by Sudanese military junta who recently took power through a coup.
The federal army has disintegrated. The divisions that survived the massacre of recent days are trying to reach the capital Addis Ababa to defend it but have been stopped by OLA troops. Now they risk encirclement and annihilation. Many child soldiers are either giving up or deserting by throwing away weapons and uniforms.
The Amhara leadership and Premier Abiy Ahmed Ali have literally gone mad. They launch proclamations to civilians in the capital to take up arms and defend Addis Ababa and in the meantime have begun house-to-house round ups where Ethiopian citizens of Tegaru origin are illegally arrested and subsequently eliminated. Local sources fear that thousands of Ethiopian citizens of Tigrinya origin have already been killed by the terrible political police National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), under the control of Temesgen Tiruneh, one of the top leaders of fascist nationalism Amhara called the Butcher of the Tegaru.
Diplomatic sources say the leaders of the illegally ruling Amhara regime are evacuating their families. Premier Abiy last night on national TV, in a frenzied speech in Amharic language, justified the victory of Tigray and Oromia with alleged support from soldiers sent to fight by Western powers including Italy. Completely surreal statement, used to justify a military disaster originating from a total incompetence of the regime that for a whole year has concentrated on massacring women, old people and children, losing all the battles against the Ethiopian democratic forces: TPLF and OLA.
The Amhara leadership also attempted to propose a ceasefire and the start of peace talks, hitherto ostentatiously rejected because of their blind faith in an easy final victory. Proposal rejected by the TDF and the OLA who now have control of the country. Last night the Council of Ministers declared a state of emergency, curfew and martial law throughout the country. This was a belated and ineffective measure, since in order to enforce these exceptional measures, it is necessary to have an army and a police that now practically no longer exist.
The American Embassy in Addis Ababa and the State Department have launched the red alert urging American citizens not to go to Ethiopia and not to take plane tickets that include a stopover at Bole airport in Addis Ababa, even if for a few hours. American citizens residing in the country have been advised not to leave their homes. Marine units could be activated to save their lives by evacuation in case the situation escalates. The Embassies of Russia and China (until now allied with the Amhara regime and Premier Abiy) have also taken measures similar to those decided by the White House.
Various regional military experts predict the fall of Addis Ababa in the coming days. The leaders of Tigray and Oromia have already made agreements with the Gambella and Benishangul-Gumuz regions to form a transitional government.
