Ethiopia. Chaotic and violent elections as the nationalist Amhara leadership rushes to Abou Dabi and Moscow.
Elections held in Ethiopia on Monday 21 June in a climate of war conflict in Tigray and Oromia. Elections conducted in a chaotic manner demonstrating the organizational inability of the Electoral Commission, which had previously excluded over a third of those entitled to vote. At the same time, there are news of military defeats of the Addis Ababa government in Tigray and Oromia. Defeats not disclosed by the Government but so worrying as to force Ethiopian Deputy Prime Minister to fly urgently to Abou Dabi and Moscow to find military support and new political alliances.
Yesterday, June 21, 2021, administrative elections were held in Ethiopia, already postponed twice since August 2020. Thousands of federal soldiers and police in combat gear were mobilized to maintain order. The task of coordinating security during the vote has been entrust to one of the main leaders of nationalist Amhara extremism: Agegnehu Teshager, former president of the Amhara State and current head of the terrible NISS political police.
The vote took place in a climate of war due to the ongoing fighting in the provinces of Tigray and Oromia. Another 4 provinces are subject to periodic ethnic violence which is progressively starting a worrying escalation. The Ethiopian elections were characterized by a massive exclusion from the vote, a boycott of the main opposition parties and numerous episodes of violence.
Out of 50 million citizens entitled to vote, 12 million citizens (2.5 in Tigray, about 3 m in Oromia and the rest in the other regions) were excluded. Out of 547 seats, 110 were not opened due to ongoing conflicts in Oromia, ethnic violence and unspecified logistical problems. Major opposition parties nationwide do not participate in elections. About 8 million voters across the country had their elections postponed to September. They do not know if their vote will be taken into due consideration given that the final results of the vote are scheduled for next July …
Six hours after the opening of the vote, violence was recorded in the State Regions of Amhara, SNNP, Afar, Oromia and Gambella, despite the imposing security apparatus designed by the Amhara executive: Teshager. The Addis Standard newspaper reports physical assaults on opposition politicians.
In the city of Ambo, in Oromia (where there is an arms factory with alleged white phosphorus production capacity) incidents were recorded following the removal of an officer from the polling station for reasons not yet clarified.
Addis Standard reports attacks by unknown militiamen against voting observers belonging to the opposition in various poll stations in the Regions of Amhara and Gambella. All these incidents would have seen an inexplicable inertia of the security apparatus headed by Teshager. Journalists are prevent from following the elections, except for those belonging to government media or Amhara propaganda intent on flooding social media with “positive” news in blatant celebration of the Prosperity Party.
In the late evening of yesterday, further news arrived that highlight a chaotic and improvised management of these elections, which (let us remember), were preceded by only 12 days of electoral campaign. In various polling stations, the ballot papers were missing for hours and hours, delaying the vote operation start. In others, the ballot papers were found to be insufficient compared to the citizens who went to vote, creating nervousness and delays.
Of the 437 seats authorized to vote, 102 were closed after a few hours due to serious irregularities and the choice of citizens who had already voted will not be considered for the partial and final results. The NEBE Electoral Commission has not specified whether the citizens of these polling stations will have the opportunity to vote in the coming days. The closure of polling stations due to irregularities mainly concern the Regions of Benishangul Gumuz (where the mega dam GERD stands) and the constituencies of Asossa Hua and Asossa Mengele. In the Region of Sidama the vote was suspended for unspecified reasons and resumed yesterday 23rd June.
Voter turnout is also questioned. In the early hours of 22nd June, authentic photos were circulating on social media showing long queues of voters in front of various polling stations in Addis Ababa and in the Amhara Region. Towards the afternoon, other photos began to circulate (also authentic) which, on the contrary, showed a scarce presence of voters in front of the polling stations. There is currently no data relating to the turnout at the polls but it is clear that there have been problems.
The Electoral Commission at around 5.00 pm local time yesterday gave the order to extend the vote until 9.00 pm in order to “allow citizens to fulfill their democratic duty”. Despite the order, various polling stations closed the vote at the scheduled time: 6.00 pm, stating that they had completed the vote based on the lists of voters they had available.
The counting of votes began in stages. Some pooling stations start counting at 6.00 pm, others at 8.00 pm, others at 9.00 pm. The opposition denounces that its election observers have been physically prevented from participating in vote counting.
Excluding the violence and intimidation suffered by candidates, militants and sympathizers of those opposition parties that had decided to participate to the elections, the organizational chaos seems so widespread that it definitively compromises the credibility of these partial and non-inclusive elections. NEBE has shown a clear inability to manage elections on the national territory despite having received substantial foreign funding since last March.
UNDP would have given about 12 million dollars. European Union would have contributed almost 20 million euros, while USAID officially declares a total funding for the elections of 30.4 million dollars.
The organizational failure of the elections would be due to the choice of pooling stations members made not on the basis of skills and curriculum studies but on political affiliation to the party of the nationalist Amhara leadership: the Prosperity Party. Most of the polling station staff would receive a brief two-day training.
A few hours after the end of the elections, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Demeke Mekonnen went urgently to Abu Dabi. According to reports from the press office of the Ethiopian government, Mekonnen discussed with senior officials of the Royal Family sensible issue in order to “explore further links between Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates”. The visit would last a few hours before Mekonnen made an (always urgent) trip to Moscow to meet Russian Prime Minister Sergey Lavrov and discuss with him ways to strengthen relations between the two nations and the latest developments in Ethiopia and in Horn of Africa region in general.
According to African diplomatic sources, these two urgent meetings were set up at the last minute in an attempt to strengthen support with the United Arab Emirates, asking Sultan Khalifa Al Nahyan for greater military engagement in Tigray. UAE combat drones intervened in the first phase of the conflict (November December 2020) causing heavy damage to the hardware of the Tigray Defense Forces. Local sources say that Sultan Al Nahyan’s drones are still operational in Tigray engaged in non-strategic attacks.
The request for greater military engagement would be motivated by the setbacks recorded in recent days in Tigray. According to various sources, the final offensive undertaken by the Eritrean troops last June 15 would have failed. The news is not spread in Ethiopia as Premier Abiy had already given for certain the final victory and the capture of the TPLF leaders.
South African journalist Martin Plaut (former BBC expert on Southern Africa and the Horn of Africa) reports that the Tigray army may have stopped Eritrea’s fifth military offensive. News and verified sources speak of a disastrous overthrow of the Eritrean army, which would have been stopped by the Tigray Defense Forces and suffered heavy losses.
Ethiopian federal army engaged in the offensive would also suffer heavy losses too. More than 15,000 federal soldiers were killed, or wounded by TDF forces. TPLF claims to have switched to the counter offensive by launching Operation Alula Abanega. The TPLF counter-offensive would be bearing fruit. Yesterday morning the third city of Tigray: Adigrat is the scene of fierce clashes between the Eritreans and the Tigray army.
The meeting with the Russian Prime Minister would aim to secure the support of Russia to counterbalance the aggressive posture adopted by United States. A proposal that has many possibilities of being accepted by the Kremlin considering the strategic position of Ethiopia, its natural resources and the possibility of entering a developing market with a potential of at least 40 million consumers.
Diplomatic sources confirm the likelihood of a pro-Russian policy, however, expressing their concerns. The United States, Addis Ababa’s main military ally and economic partner, will react very badly in the face of a “betrayal” that puts American interests at stake in the Horn of Africa, a region too close to the Middle East where the dispute between America and Russia on the fate of Syria is still ongoing.
