Ethiopia asks the G20 to renegotiate debt invoking Covid19. Actually to continue the conflict in Tigray.
On February 1, the Ethiopian government asked the G20 for a strong debt reduction in order to start the national Covid19 vaccination campaign. There are doubts that the funds freed from the duty to repay the debt can be used to continue the war in Tigray. According to U.A. diplomatic sources the conflict would cost the federal state coffers $ 1.2m daily
Until the infamous November 3, 2020 (the beginning of the war in Tigray), Ethiopia was considered the country with the fastest economic growth on the continent. The country under the authoritarian leadership of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front — TPLF (1991–2019) experienced a 10% anual economic growth, based on strong state intervention and with world-class public companies such as Ethiopian Airlines or Ethiocom. There were accusations and suspicions that the TPLF management speculated on this economic boom by favoring entrepreneurs of their own ethnicity and developing Tigray more than other regions, but the progressive decrease in poverty and widespread and visible well-being on the whole population, mitigated any TPLF economic abuses.
The arrival of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali in 2018 drastically changed the economic picture. Abiy had promised democratic reforms and greater freedom to avoid a civil war that had been latent since 2012, the year of the first popular uprisings of the Amhara and Oromo, the main Ethiopian ethnic groups. In 2018, the TPLF was faced with ethnic claims that were too widespread to be resolved with repression. A new face in power was needed that could calm the situation and assure TPLF government continuity. The young Abiy instead pursued a policy aimed at liquidating the TPLF and taking absolute power, allying himself with the Amhara leadership that had controlled the country for centuries through the Imperial Dynasty until the fall of the last of its emperors: Haile Selassie. This policy forced Abiy to abandon his democratic aims to embrace the politics of ethnic oppression.
To win the sympathies of the West, P.M. Abiy (communication expert) managed to impose an international marketing campaign that depicted him as a pacifist, reformer, human rights defender and a convinced democrat, but the best offer addressed to the West was the privatization plan for companies and openness to the free market with a weak state intervention. Already in 2019 the economic situation was worsening while the political situation was degenerating. With the lack of TPLF iron control of the Country, the various opposition parties did not contribute to strengthening democracy, preferring ethnic claims. In turn, Abiy has conducted a social and economic policy in favor of the Amhara Leadership to the detriment of other ethnic groups.
The numerous protests and riots in Oromia, Somali Region and in other parts of the country have not been managed with dialogue and respect for civil rights but with the same repressive methods of the TPLF of which Abiy has been a leading figure for at least a decade. He was in charge of communication and population control. In 2020, the Ethiopian economy stalled due to the Covid19 pandemic. Stall that turned into catastrophe when the Prime Minister decided to resolve the political dispute with the TPLF with a war of aggression.
The “police” operations in Tigray to eradicate the “scum” of the TPLF were to last a few weeks. We are now on the 92nd day of the war. Despite the intervention of the Eritrean army allied with Abiy and the Amhara leadership, the TPLF is far from being defeated. Mark Lowcock, UN director of humanitarian operations told the Security Council that the TPLF still controls 40% of the Tigray territories and possibly beyond. He also reported that the Addis Ababa government is no longer able to control its Eritrean ally who now appears to be operating in Tigray with an autonomous and dark agenda. According to African Union diplomatic sources, the Tigray conflict would cost the Ethiopian government $ 1.2 million a day. An unsustainable cost that aggravates the economic situation already compromised by the pandemic.
The TPLF is first of all a guerrilla formation which has turned into a political party on 1992. Guerrilla warfare is inherent in its DNA. It was created by guerrillas who participated in the fight against the last brutal and bloody emperor Amhara: the Negus and was the main architect of the fight against the Stalinist military junta of the DERG. As in the past, even against Abiy the TPLF uses a deadly tactic that has always given the desired results. Forcing the opponent into a long war to bleed him economically. Both the Negus and the DERG were defeated as the resources diverted to defeat the guerrillas had destroyed the national economy.
To avoid the same fate, Prime Minister Abiy on February 1, 21 addressed the G20 asking for a substantial debt reduction to reduce the economic impact dictated by the pandemic and to be able to start the national vaccination campaign is. Ethiopia has a foreign debt of 27.8 billion dollars, of which 8.5 billion with international institutions and states and 6.8 billion with investors and private banks.
The Ethiopian government’s request follows on from Chad’s request for debt renegotiation. The two dossiers will be examined by the G20 but the Ethiopian request weighs heavily on suspicion. Among them that the debt relief is not used to start the Covid19 vaccination campaign but to repay other debts contracted with China or private investors. “The intentions of the Ethiopian government are unclear as to how it will manage the financial resources released from the debt repayment obligation, if its application is accepted,” noted Kevin Daly, director of Aberdeem Standard Investments.
Another suspicion revolves around the cost of the conflict in Tigray. Debt reduction would make it possible to free up the resources needed to continue fighting in the rebel region and to organize the second offensive in close collaboration with the bloody Eritrean dictator in the hope of definitively defeating the TPLF. It is this risk that is holding back the G20s in accepting the Ethiopian request. The unheard requests of the new American president for an immediate withdrawal of Eritrean troops from Tigray, evidence of crimes against humanity committed against the civilian population, a ban on UN agencies and NGOs from providing humanitarian aid to the Tigrinya population now reduced to starvation , Abiy’s obstinacy to continue the war and reject political dialogue, are all factors that work against Addis Ababa’s request for a considerable reduction in the foreign debt incurred.
Whatever the real reason for the request (to pay off private debts, to be able to continue to support the war effort or, perhaps, both) in the eyes of international economic experts it is clear that the national vaccination from Covid19 is simply a red herring. Abiy has amply shown that she has little concern for the health of her citizens given the massacres ordered in Tigray and the crackdown in Oromia. With a population of 109.30 million people, 436.8 million dollars would be needed for a complete vaccination considering a calculation based on the possibility of accessing a political price of the vaccine of 4 dollars per dose. An enormous economic effort during the conflict with Tigray. If the request for debt relief will be accepted, will Abiy use it to safeguard the health of its citizens or to win at all costs the war against the TPLF, imprudently and childishly declared won on November 28, 2020?
