Ethiopia. An open letter from former American ambassadors to Prime Minister Abiy forces the White House to intervene for Peace
It’s only been 8 days since Democrat Joe Biden took office as President, after a stormy post-election period marked by popular violence for the first time in US history, and the wind of change is already blowing over the conflict in Tigray.
The new US State Department announced in the night between January 26 and 27 to ask for the immediate withdrawal of all Eritrean soldiers present on Ethiopian territory. Despite accumulating evidences both Ethiopia and Eritrea continue to deny that the Eritrean army has conducted military operations in Tigray since the start of the conflict. In its statement, the State Department reiterates that the United States has “credible information” on the abuses of Eritreans. Finally, he mentions the catastrophic humanitarian situation in north Ethiopia province.
Although the new President is more attentive to foreign policy issues addressed to the African continent, the strong stance is due to an open letter from 4 former American Ambassadors to Ethiopia: David H. Shinn (Ambassador: July 1996-August 1999), Aurelia E. Brazeal (Ambassador: November 2002-September 2005), Vichki J. Huddleston (Chargé d’affaires: September 2005-November 2006), Patricia M. Haslach (Ambassador: September 2013-August 2016).
The positions adopted by his predecessor Donald Trump and the European Union in early November 2020 seemed scandalous in the eyes of international public opinion. Defining the conflict in Tigray as “a matter of internal politics” precluded any possibility of intervention to stop the war and the advancing of the policy promoted by China in Africa of “Non-interference in the internal affairs of the partner country”. An apparently just foreign policy but which in fact sacrifices democratic values and respect for human rights in the name of Business with anyone and at any cost.
Some diplomatic sources say that the Ethiopian Prime Minister towards the end of October 2020 would have communicated to the White House and Brussels his intention to attack Tigray by receiving the green light on condition of “closing the game as soon as possible and without too many massacres”. Exactly the opposite happened. We are on the 86th day of the conflict in Tigray, which began on November 3, 2020 and declared closed by the federal government (for compelling propaganda reasons) on November 28, 2020.
To try to obtain a lightning victory, the Ethiopian Prime Minister has channelled an invasion force on Tigray made up of at least 80,000 Federals, an unknown (but significant) number of Amhara militiamen and about 12,000 Eritrean soldiers (according to sources provided to us by the Eritrean opposition in exile. , not verifiable on the ground). To these must be added 2,500 young Somali soldiers who were in training in Eritrea and forced to fight in Tigray. Of these young people, only 500 have survived, creating a popular furore in Somalia that threatens to shake the already weak government of President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmajo.
The prolongation of a war that was supposed to be “lightning” offered the opportunity to understand its dynamics and motivations. The conflict did not break out due to the ‘alleged’ TLPF attack on a military camp of the Northern Command of the federal army. It has been secretly planned since September 2020 by two main actors in the carnage: the bloodthirsty Eritrean dictator Isaias Afewerki and by the ‘reformer and democratic’ Abiy, darling of the West who proved to be nothing more than a despot in strict consistency with the most dark of the authoritarian and dictatorial power of the time of the Amhara Emperors.
The causes of the conflict are three. For Abiy to eliminate a dangerous political opponent (TPLF) who has ruled the country for the last 28 years (1991–2019) with an excellent army, finances and international connections. For the dictator Afewerki to settle the accounts with the TPLF remained unresolved since the days of the Independence of Eritrea and worsened with the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict. For the Amhara leadership, use Abiy to establish itself as a politically dominant ethnicity in the country and restore the absolute power enjoyed during the Solomonic dynasty of the Emperors of which the last exponent was Ras Tafari Makonnen, known as Haile Selassie (Power of the Trinity). The ambitions of absolute power of the Amhara leadership go beyond the border, with the claim of Sudanese border territories and risks sparking a regional conflict, linked to the Great Ethiopian-GERD rebirth dam.
The presence of Eritrean soldiers, the massacre of 2000 out of 2500 young Somali soldiers who were in Eritrea for training in the military and suddenly sent to the Tigrinya front to fight, the unprecedented violence against the civilian population and Eritrean refugees; the systematic looting of goods transported with columns of trucks to Asmara as war booty; the destruction of Catholic Orthodox churches and historical monuments; the ban on access to journalists and the boycott of humanitarian aid which is driving millions of people to starvation; they are war crimes that have slowly emerged, forcing the Western allies to take positions diametrically opposite to their initial ones.
The open letter that prompted Biden to intervene with a steady hand shifts the balance of power that is now no longer in favour of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and his Ethiopian allies: the Amhara leadership. The United Nations Humanitarian Coordination Agency (OCHA) echoes this open letter. In its report of January 26, OCHA is alarmed by “hunger and malnutrition” of the people of Tigray. The World Health Organization (WHO) speaks of the significant risk of epidemics, while 70% of hospitals in Tigray are, according to WHO, “dysfunctional”.
The European Union also intends to raise its voice. The head of European diplomacy, accompanied by the Finnish Minister of Foreign Affairs, is announced in Addis Ababa on 6 February, in conjunction with the African Union summit. Finally, Egypt, Ethiopia’s great regional rival, and Sudan, its neighbor with whom Ethiopia is clashing in the disputed territory, have shown signs of friendship in recent times. The diplomatic balance of power, more favorable yesterday to Addis Ababa’s right to “restore order” in Tigray, is clearly changing.
Are we therefore close to peace and the opening of a dialogue not only between the Federal Government and the TPLF, but inclusive of all Ethiopian political forces and civil society? Unfortunately not.
Prime Minister Abiy needs a total and definitive victory at all costs, no matter the price to be charged to the Tigrinya population and the Ethiopian population in general. African diplomatic sources and the Eritrean opposition in exile in Europe report an imminent large joint offensive by the Ethiopian, Eritrean and Amhara militias to annihilate the TPLF. News also confirmed by the Eritrean opposition movement Abri Harnet (Freedom Friday). The decision to launch this second offensive was made in light of the growing pressure from the international community to stop the war.
According to information from sources of the Eritrean opposition in exile, the dictatorial regime of Asmara has promised to send another 32,000 soldiers to destroy the defensive positions of the TPLF. The Addis Ababa government will increase its headcount in Tigray by another 20,000. Only the Amhara militias will not receive reinforcements as the bulk of the militias at the disposal of the Amhara leadership is busy monitoring and suppressing a possible Oromo revolt and in the conflict (at the moment of low intensity) in the border territories of Sudan. According to sources, the offensive would involve the indiscriminate use of bombs and missiles with high explosive charge, multiple fragmentation and unspecified chemical weapons.
To the imminent offensive in Tigray are added further war provocations on the Sudanese border and preparations for the invasion of Sudan by Ethiopia and Eritrea. On Sunday 24 January, Sudanese army units patrolling the border with Ethiopia were targeted by intense mortar fire fired by the Ethiopian federal army. A military source told the Sudan Tribune newspaper that Sudanese units patrolling the area surrounding the Abu Teyyour mountains were subjected to intense mortar fire by Ethiopian federal units stationed in the Abdel-Rafi area on the other side of the border. . “Sudanese troops responded effectively to Ethiopian fire and there were no casualties on their side. I cannot say if there have been losses in the ranks of the attacking forces because they are based on the other side of the border territory. The bombing was an intentional and planned attack that undermines peaceful coexistence and fuels tensions between our two countries, ”the military official said. As expected, the Ethiopian government denies the incident.
On Tuesday, January 26, the African Union made another attempt to avoid regional war by organizing a future meeting of the leaders of the two countries to find a peaceful and honourable solution on the dispute over the border territories of undisputed Sudanese sovereignty but targeted by the reborn imperial policy of the Amhara Leadership. The UA’s attempt was scuttled by the provocative preconditions set by Prime Minister Abyi Ahmed Ali for any form of negotiation on the border dispute.
The Ethiopian government, state media reported, the talks will begin only when the Sudanese side withdraws from the territories considered to belong to the Amhara Region. “Our prerequisite for continuing the negotiations with the Sudanese side is a return to the status quo ante. Then we will discuss the border issue, “said the spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Dina Mufti, stressing that there will be no dialogue with Sudan unless the latter withdraws its forces from the occupied Ethiopian territories. Asking a sovereign state to renounce part of its territories is further proof that the Ethiopian Prime Minister is seeking at all costs a war outside Ethiopia. Khartoum rejected Addis Ababa’s request on the declared border areas that Sudan sees as an integral part of its territory.
At least 2 Eritrean divisions would be on standby to join the Ethiopian forces of the federal government and the fascist Amhara militias for an imminent invasion of Sudan. To prevent the entry of Eritrean troops, the Sudan General Staff has already mobilized two of its best fighting brigades on the border with Eritrea: the 17th and 61st brigades.
To the numerous unknowns of a regional war that seems sought at all costs, there is the clear warning of the new American Administration. In a decision unprecedented in the history of relations between Washington and Khartoum, Sudanese military leaders last Tuesday discussed military cooperation between the two countries with an American delegation on a visit led by the deputy commander of the African Military Command (AFRICOM). The meeting was preceded by the arrival (Monday January 25) of Ambassador Andrew Young on an official visit accompanied by Admiral Heidi Berg, intelligence director of the United States Africa Command and other military officials. He met with the head of the Sovereign Council Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok and the commanders of the Sudanese army.
Following his meeting with the Sudanese premier, the visiting US official wanted to emphasize that their cooperation is limited to the Sudanese armed forces, suggesting that militia forces are not included in the report. “We are working together in partnership with the Sudanese Transitional Civilian Government to strengthen the partnership between the Sudanese Professional Army and the US Army Command in Africa (AFRICOM),” Young said in media comments following his meeting with Abdallah. Hamdok. He added that his visit to Khartoum, as the first senior official of the United States Military Command for Africa, is “a step that will evaluate and promote our common interests in good governance, promote human rights and accountability, defeat terrorist threats and promoting common prosperity “.
The US military official affirmed his country’s support for the transitional government and works to strengthen and cooperate with it, emphasizing Washington’s effort to “establish a relationship based on dialogue, mutual trust and a common commitment to achieve greater safety and stability “. During the press release, the American delegation expressed great concern about the situation on the eastern borders of Sudan, stressing that the Sudanese army has been redeployed on the border with Ethiopia. A veiled warning to the Warlords of Addis Ababa and Asmara.
A harsh attack on the Ethiopian Prime Minister comes from the most influential liberal newspaper in the United States: the Washington Post. In an editorial with an accusatory title: “The leader of Ethiopia won the Nobel Peace Prize. He is now accused of war crimes. “, The historic American newspaper unreservedly accuses Abiy of perpetrating serious crimes against humanity. After launching an invasion of the rebel province of Tigray, Mr. Abiy’s regime is accused of sealing the region and blocking food deliveries and other humanitarian aid. International aid officials warn millions of people could be at risk of famine.
The Abiy government claims to be engaged in a “stabilizing mission” after routing the forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Indeed, he has relentlessly hunted down fugitive TPLF leaders, including former Ethiopian foreign minister Seyoum Mesfin, 71, who was killed this month in what authorities said was a shooting. Although four dozen TPLF leaders have been killed or captured, many remain at large, along with thousands of fighters who still control parts of the province.
Mr. Abiy claims that his forces have already triumphed in Tigray and that the conflict will soon be over. More likely, a guerrilla with the TPLF will drag on for years and the humanitarian crisis will deepen, even if an immediate famine is averted. Ecco why the United States and the European Union, which heavily fund Ethiopia, should withhold further aid until there is full humanitarian access to Tigray and the government agrees to continue the peace talks. “ The editorial in the Washinton Post reads.
Fulvio Beltrami
Below we reproduce the faithful translation of the open letter.
“Open letter to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from retired US ambassadors to Ethiopia
January 21, 2021
Dear Prime Minister:
We are former ambassadors who have served in Ethiopia at various political crossroads and each of us is always inspired by the resilience and principles of the Ethiopian people. At the moment, we are deeply concerned about the stability and future of Ethiopia, and therefore we have taken the liberty of writing to you about our concerns.
We have seen the conflict in Tigray with grave distress as, according to the United Nations, nearly 60,000 refugees have fled to Sudan, 2.2 million people have been displaced and 4.5 million people are in need of emergency assistance, many of them without adequate food. We are also concerned about the alleged presence of Eritrean troops in Tigray, which could jeopardize the territorial integrity of Ethiopia.
We are concerned about the escalation of ethnic tensions across the country, which is reflected in the proliferation of hate speech and an increase in ethnic and religious violence. Based on the time spent in your country, this growing violence seems contrary to Ethiopia’s long tradition of tolerance for different religions and ethnicities.
It is our hope, Prime Minister, that his government will ensure the protection of civilians, independent investigation into human rights violations and unrestricted access for the United Nations and other relief agencies. We would like to repeat the advice we have often heard during each of our assignments in your country: Ethiopia needs a national dialogue designed to bring all sectors of society together. We wish the best to you and every Ethiopian.
Best regards”
