Ethiopia. Agegnehu Teshager and Temesgen Tiruneh play the Russian card to stay in power. Syrian scenario risk.

In an attempt to resume the war in Tigray and to face a probable conflict against Egypt and Sudan on the Ethiopian GERD dam, Amhara leaders are seeking military support from Russia. This alliance serves Addis Ababa to counter the United States and the European Union increasingly hostile due to the conflict in Tigray and the crimes against humanity committed. Russia sees Ethiopia as a Trojan horse to expand her influence from the Horn of Africa to Yemen. The harsh American reaction is predictable. There is a real risk that the Ethiopian conflict will move towards the Syrian “model”.

Yesterday, 07 July 2021, the 11th military cooperation forum between Ethiopia and Russia was held in Addis Ababa. The meeting was attended by the Deputy Director of Military Technical Cooperation of the Russian Federation: Punchuk Anatoly, accompanied by a pool of Generals; the Russian Ambassador to Ethiopia: Terekhin Evgeny; State Minister of Finance of the National Defense Force Martha Luwiji; various generals of the ENDF and entrepreneurs of the Ethiopian war industry.

The meeting focused on strengthening military cooperation between Addis Ababa and Moscow, “police operations” in Tigray and Oromia, the GERD mega dam and the general situation in the Horn of Africa region. Agreements have been signed on upgrading military technology, skills and knowledge for the Ethiopian federal army.

“Many Ethiopian Defense Forces personnel have received military training in Russia. We are ready to support not only the ENDF but the Ethiopian military industry and air force with the aim of modernizing them and making them more effective in defending the territory, “said Punchuk Anatoly.

The two governments underlined that the meeting had been scheduled for some time and connects with the meeting between Premier Abiy Ahmed Ali and President Vladimir Putin which took place on the margins of the Russia Africa summit in Sochi in October 2019 and the telephone conversation between the two leader in April 2020.

An Ethiopian source within the Prosperity Party and belonging to a minority faction of dissidents informs us of some very worrying details of the meeting. According to the source, which we considered credible, the meeting was organized a priori by the Ethiopian Foreign Minister Demeke Mekonnen on indications from President Amhara: Agegnehu Teshager and the head of the NISS: Temesgen Tiruneh.

“The Amhara leadership is trying to play the Russian card against the United States, which is considered to be an ally of the TPLF. In the official press releases of the Russian Ethiopian summit, an important piece of news was censored for reasons of national security ”, explains the source.

According to the information received, Russia has undertaken to send military instructors to Ethiopia to assist the ENDF in “resolving” the instability created in Oromia due to the “terrorist” activities of the Oromo Liberation Front and to contain the threat of the TPLF on the State Region of Oromia.

At the moment this information has not been confirmed so it should be taken with the benefit of the doubt. However, it is undeniable that the Ethiopia Russia summit marks an important turning point in Ethiopian foreign policy that is moving from the alliance with the United States and the European Union to the alliance with China and Russia, as noted by Andrew Korybko, an expert in African geopolitics for account of the information site Modern Diplomacy.

“The United States recently imposed sanctions on some Ethiopian officials whom Washington blames for alleged human rights violations in Tigray. The Addis Ababa government suspects that the United States is supporting the TPLF and fears that Washington may force the European Union to take tougher measures than those adopted so far against Ethiopia and Eritrea. So Addis Ababa tries to offset the “danger” of American interference by trying, with the alliance with Beijing and Moscow, to create a cold war situation between superpowers to its advantage, “explains Andrew Korybko.

The doubts harbored by the nationalist Amhara leadership about President Joe Biden appear to be justified. There are many signs that the White House has chosen to support the TPLF. These include the conditions for peace expressed by the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the conditions dictated by the TPLF to accept the ceasefire declared by Addis Ababa. The two positions are almost identical.

Temesgen Tiruneh suspects secret negotiations are underway between the US and the TPLF leadership to overthrow the Addis Ababa regime and is opposed to opening the humanitarian corridor in Tigray. Tiruneh categorically rejects the UN proposal to manage aid from Sudan and open the land corridor using the Tigray area of ​​the Sudan Ethiopia border currently under the control of the Amhara paramilitary militias and units of the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies. He fears that the humanitarian corridor from Sudan is a Trojan horse for the supply of weapons and ammunition to the TPLF.

The Addis Ababa government, under pressure from Western powers, yesterday said it had authorized humanitarian flights to Tigray, but the head of civil aviation informed Reuters that no such flights have yet taken off from the capital. The blatant boycott of human intervention Arius and the barbaric extrajudicial execution of three of his volunteers forced MSF to suspend humanitarian operations in Tigray. The famous French NGO has called for the opening of an independent investigation to bring those responsible for the attack on its volunteers to justice.

The Amhara management has moved a lot to China since 2019, while continuing to receive US financial assistance of $ 1 billion annually. The strengthening of the alliance with China has created a geostrategic dependence of Ethiopia on Beijing which would greatly restrict the margins of trade negotiations and economic sovereignty. There is a strong risk that the Red Dragon will enter into a unilateral relationship with Ethiopia for the exclusive benefit of Chinese investments.

The military alliance with Russia would serve both to protect itself from the United States and to balance dependence on China, according to the Modern Diplomacy expert. “Abiy Ahmed, who was initially considered a friend of the Americans, is now considered a” Bad Boy “by the United States due to his military campaign in Tigray. The Addis Ababa government cannot play the European Union card as European allies are likely to side with the United States. In addition, strong differences are arising with the Arab allies due to Ethiopian intransigence on the dispute over the waters of the Nile. China risks becoming the master of the country. Consequently, the Ethiopian government sees Russia as the only practical partner capable of counterbalancing the United States, the European Union and China, ”explains Andrew Korybko.

Demeke Mekonnen, Agegnehu Teshager and Temesgen Tiruneh consider Russian military support, known for being offered without moral and democratic constraints, to be reliable and effective. A trust placed in Russia also following the Russian military successes recorded in defense of the weak and corrupt government of Bangui, Central African Republic. Mekonnen, Teshager and Tiruneh seem to want to return to the Russian support given at the time of the DERG military junta by re-proposing the Washington-Moscow opposition at the time of the Cold War.

Moscow is looking forward to strengthening military cooperation and extending its influence to Ethiopia which would be part of its expansion strategy towards Africa and in particular the Horn of Africa. With Ethiopia as a regional entry point, Russia hopes to further expand its influence in the Horn of Africa and the rest of East Africa. Considering the current difficult situation of the Addis Ababa and Asmara regimes, the Ethiopian-Russian military cooperation risks turning into a direct intervention to balance the fate of the war in Tigray and win the OLA guerrilla in Oromia, thus creating a scenario very similar to the Syrian one.

It is likely that in the coming weeks Moscow will decide to send its special forces (made up of mercenaries from the Wagner Group) to fight alongside the federal army on the Tigrinya and Oromo fronts, passing them off as mere military instructors, as it did in the Central African Republic. A Russian military success in Ethiopia would be a further visiting card to convince other African dictatorships to accept the influence and protection of Moscow.

For Russia, Ethiopia is also a strategic country to protect its geostrategic interests in Yemen. Russia believes that Yemen’s long-term stability requires a complete cessation of hostilities and a negotiated solution to existing problems. During the Sochi talks, Moscow stressed the need to launch a broad national dialogue which takes into account the approaches and concerns of all the main political forces in Yemen. The Russian-guaranteed peace card is being played to counter Iran which supports the Houthi militias and Saudi Arabia which supports the government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.

According to our source in Addis Ababa, the “two Ts” (Teshager and Tiruneh) would have thought of playing the Russian card since the first clashes with US President Joe Biden recorded last May. During the anti-US demonstration held on May 30 in the Ethiopian capital, many Russian flags appeared, waved by the faithful of the Prosperity Party, while many demonstrators cheered Vladimir Putin and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The Russian charter will help worsen relations with Washigton. The United States cannot afford to have its main ally in the Horn of Africa come under the influence of Moscow. For this reason, more energetic and radical American countermeasures can be envisaged than the current ones. A first American countermeasure will be to block the Ethiopian government’s request submitted to the World Bank and IMF to cancel 1 billion dollars of foreign debt in order to be able to free up funds to support the post-economic recovery. COVID-19. Ethiopia asks for a grace period of at least 6 years in the repayment of the credits received. The request joins the one made at the G20 last January to guarantee debt cancellation for all its creditors, including China.

The Ethiopian Ministry of Finance says unspecified commercial creditors have postponed the repayment of $ 2.5 billion in debt for 5 years. A statement difficult to verify given the lack of reliable data and the numerous false claims of the Ethiopian government which are nothing more than pure propaganda: from the protection of civilians in Tigray to the declaration of victory over the TPLF; from the declaration that the national economy is in excellent health to the denial of the ongoing war in Oromia.

The only certain thing is that Addis Ababa intends to use the possible moratorium on the payment of foreign debt or (better still) of its cancellation to free financial resources not intended for economic recovery but to appear weapons in order to impose the Amhara ethnic domination by winning the two wars in progress in Tigray and Oromia.