Chad. The Zaghawa generals remain in power to the great embarrassment of the European Union.
After the death of the warlord Idriss Deby Itno, the country is in danger of descending into chaos. To safeguard the interests of the Zaghawa clan, the army implements a constitutional coup creating a military transition junta and appointing the deceased dictator’s son to lead the country. The European Union, the United States and the African Union passively suffer this blatant violation of democracy in the name of the fight against Islamic terrorism of which Chad is one of the main allies of the West. Meanwhile, the rebellion promises to continue the armed revolt and take over the capital N’Djamena. A terrible ethnic war is looming on the horizon between the ruling Zaghawa and the Goran ethnic group, of the former dictator Hissene Habre.
After the news of Idriss Déby’s death on Tuesday 20 April, an era of uncertainty begins for Chad and for the entire region. The army took power, placing the late president’s son, Mahamat Idriss Deby, at the helm of the country. The opposition parties and the Civil Society denounce a coup d’état as the Constitution provides in the event of the death of the President a transition period controlled by the National Assembly with the appointment of the President of Parliament as President of the Republic Ad Interim with the mandate of organize elections within 6 months. On the contrary, the Generals (mostly belonging to the deceased president’s ethnicity: the Zaghawa) dissolved the National Assembly, suspended the Constitution, imposed a curfew on the whole country, closed all air and land borders. The transition period was set at 18 months.
“It is not the army’s job to take power or manage it. Even if there is talk of a transition period of 18 months, there is a real risk that the military junta will decide to transform the Mahamat Presidency from provisional to definitive. These are our fears ”, explains François Djékombé, president of the Sacred Union of the Republic. Ironically, Mahamat Idriss Deby is nearly as old as his father was when he took power.
“It is imperative to prevent history from repeating itself in Chad. It is the president of the National Assembly who must take over in the event of the death of the President or in the event of his permanent psychophysical incapacity. The delicate transition must be managed by civilians with the broad participation of all political forces and exponents of civil society. A President and a transitional government that must give itself the mandate to organize new elections, allowing all Chadian citizens to participate in the national dialogue to define together the future of the country. ”, Says Succès Masra, leader of the Transformers Party.
The Union of Trade Unions of Chad (UST) joins the criticism of the opposition. In a statement, the executive office of the UST refuses the transition to be entrusted to the military and condemns the confiscation of power by weapons. The trade unions are calling for a civil transition and the opening of an inclusive dialogue. Even the traditional leaders have expressed themselves negatively on the maneuver of the army, demanding an immediate transfer of power from the military to civilians.
“The role of the military will be limited to ensuring internal stability and border security. Nobody intends to remain in power indefinitely. The Transitional Military Council has no intention of confiscating power. Within 18 months free and transparent elections will be organized where the will of the people, expressed in the polls, will be ‘respected ”reassures Mahamat Bichara, who brought the word of the military junta. Bichara stresses that the transition managed by the army is the only possible solution to avoid chaos and not to hand over Chad to Islamic terrorism.
The terrorist threat is real. Iyad Ag-Ghali, leader of the terrorist group GSIM (Support Group for Islam and Muslims) and Abubakar Shekau, the leader of the nebulous Nigerian Islamic sect Boko Haram, have been the main actors of insecurity in Burkina Faso for almost a decade. , Chad, Mali, Niger and Nigeria. Idriss Deby Itno was their most formidable adversary and precious ally of the Western powers in the fight against international terrorism.
It is precisely on the terrorist danger that the military junta uses to numb any opposition of the international community against the constitutional coup that has been implemented. The Zaghawa Generals present themselves to the European Union and the United States as the only credible interlocutors to prevent Chad and the entire region from falling into chaos after the death of Idirss Deby.
The arguments available to the Generals are not lacking and are extremely convincing. Starting from the premise that Chad is going through an extremely delicate and uncertain period, the army remembers what happened to Libya, now in the hands of terrorists and bandits who took advantage of the political crisis and the revolution of 2011. A scenario that the leaders terrorists (Iyad Ag-Ghali and Abubakar Shekau) could easily recreate in Chad if the transition were entrusted to a government of national unity made up solely of civilians.
“It is therefore important to avoid chaos in Chad and West Africa. The European Union and the United States should welcome our decision to take matters into their own hands to prevent it from falling into the hands of terrorists. “ cunningly points out the army spokesperson. Western support for the Chadian military junta seems a forced choice but extremely difficult to justify what it implies ca the abdication of democratic values which are the pillar of the European and American Constitution.
The European Union with the Chadian crisis is entering a difficult period. How to accept the military junta in Chad when in Mali the EU demanded respect for the Constitution and the return to power of civilians, after the August 2020 coup? At the moment, Brussels and Washington have not yet pronounced themselves limiting themselves to taking note of the current situation in Chad, hoping for a peaceful transition to a stable civilian government.
The African Union also remains cautious, avoiding a priori condemnation of the newborn Transition Military Council. The Peace and Security Council of the African Union, which met yesterday (Thursday 22 April) to discuss the crises in Chad and Somalia, declares itself extremely cautious to condemn the choice of Generals Zaghawa and to impose a civil government or economic sanctions. The U.A. is well aware that Chad is an important country for international efforts to combat Islamist militants in Africa and for the stability of the Sahel region. Chad also played an important role in the stabilization of Sudan after the Arab revolution which ended the pseudo-Islamic dictatorship of Omar El Bashir.
According to some regional observers, the “soft” position of the U.A. against the military junta of N’Djamena it was facilitated by Moussa Faki Mahamat, former Chadian foreign minister and current president of the African Union Commission. During the meeting, Faki played the trump card of continental stability, recalling that the African Union and the International Community cannot run the risk of managing a civil war in Chad at the same time as the ongoing civil war in Ethiopia, where the headquarters of the UA
The Islamic terrorist charter appears to be working. The Western powers and the U.A. they will oppose by demanding a civilian government even if all are well aware of the specific nature of the Military Transition Council. “The military junta that took power after the death of the Warlord Idriss Deby Itno is based on the need to ensure the continuity of power of the ethnic minority Arab of the Zaghawa through the establishment of a monarchy of the Deby family: the son who succeeds his father, without any respect for the Constitution and democracy. Chad is creating a classic despotic African situation in the 1970s — 1980s where ethnic warrior minorities conquered and maintained power at all costs. The Chadian military junta represents a step backwards from the democratic process underway on the Continent. “ explains Roland Marchal, researcher at the International Research Center based in Paris.
The moves that Islamic terrorist groups could attempt to destabilize Chad by taking advantage of the current political crisis are not yet known. The only certain fact is the ‘will’ of the rebellion of the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT) to continue the armed revolt, after killing President Idriss Deby Itno in battle. “We categorically reject the transition led by the generals and one of Deby’s sons. We intend to carry out the military offensive in order to liberate Chad and bring it on the right path of democracy. Our troops are concentrating to conquer N’Diamena ”, announces Kingabe Ogouzeimi de Tapol, spokesman for the FACT armed group currently in exile in the Gabonese capital Libreville.
There are rumors that FACT wants to take advantage of the situation by presenting itself as the guarantor of a civilian government for a democratic transition. This policy would be aimed at winning the trust of the main opposition parties, civil society and the population in general. More in-depth news arrives on the composition of this armed opposition movement. Contrary to what was initially supposed, the FACT rebellion is not composed of Zaghawa but of the Goran ethnic group, one of the main ethnic groups in North Africa to which the previous Chadian dictator Hissene Habre ‘belonged. All regional observers categorically deny some Western media that have attempted to portray FACT as an Islamic terrorist formation. Rather, it is a struggle between two ethnic groups (Zaghawa and Goran) that have dominated the political scene in Chad for the past 50 years.
Today, in his native village, the Warrior President who died according to the Zaghawa clan tradition fighting his enemies will be buried. The ceremony is attended by all the presidents of the G5 Sahel, the coordination of regional cooperation in development policies and security issues in Africa, formed on February 16, 2014 during the Nouakchott summit, and composed of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Also present at the ceremony is the current president of the African Union: Felix Tshisekedi president of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Elysée announced the imminent visit of the French head of state Emmanuel Macron. A visit necessary to understand if it will be appropriate to support the ethnic military junta in Chad or not.
