Chad. Peace between the Zaghawa Military Junta and Goran rebels has faded.

`The young Mahamat, after the death of his father Idriss Deby Itno, has been nominated President by a military junta made up of generals of the Zaghawa ethnic group. While a transitional government involving civilian participation is about to be formed, the military junta rejects the ceasefire and peace talks with the FACT rebellion made up mostly of members of the rival ethnic group: Gorane, to which the former dictator Hissène Habré belonged.

The death of the dictator Idriss Deby Itno on the battlefield and the sudden appointment of his son Mahamad as Head of State and president of a military junta created by senior officials of the Zaghawa ethnic group, are sudden facts that have forced the United States and the European Union to take note. The rapid evolution of events has greatly influenced the decision of the Western powers to support the military junta on the condition that it hands over power to civilians within 18 months and that it renews Chad’s commitment to the fight against Islamic terrorism in the Sahara.

“Mahamat has more power than his father had!” On Sunday exclaimed the general secretary of the Chad Convention for the defense of human rights, Mahamat Nour Ibedou, in the “African Debate” on RFI, fearing in many here that the “18 months” announced are only the beginning for Idriss’s son. Déby.

Various organizations and political opponents have appealed to the population to demonstrate against this constitutional coup. It remains to be seen whether the population will dare to take part in a city manned by military men in war gear.

To defuse tensions, Mahamat Idriss Deby should address the Nation in days, explaining his vision of the transition. A government should be appointed within a week. The presence of some opponents and members of civil society is rumored to be possible.

The rebels of FACT (Front pour l’Alternance et la Concorde au Tchad) seem willing to take advantage of the delicate and chaotic situation after killing the dictator in battle. After declaring a unilateral truce last Saturday they expressed their willingness to a ceasefire and to dialogue to find a political solution to the conflict. According to various regional observers, FACT has suffered heavy losses. A ceasefire would allow them to reorganize their ranks. Peace negotiations can also offer valuable time. If the negotiations will arise an agreement, the FACT executives could obtain political and economic advantages over a war that could make it long but, perhaps, not win.

The military junta coldly rejected the FACT proposal. General Azem Bermandoa, in a statement on Sunday 25 April, in a decisive tone, made it clear that the Transitional Military Council (CMT) will not engage in any dialogue with the insurgents. “Faced with this situation that endangers Chad and the stability of the entire sub-region, the hour is neither mediation nor negotiation with outlaws,” said General Azem, spokesman for the CMT.

The intransigence shown by the military junta was unexpected. The Transitional Military Council has decided to go against the wish expressed by the French President Emmanuel Macron, during the funeral of Idriss Deby, that the “CMT promotes stability, inclusion, dialogue, democratic transition”. Why do the coup generals prefer to continue the conflict that began on 11 April last? The main reason lies in the ethnic composition of the two opponents. The Mahamat and the majority of the CMT is made up of the Zaghawa ethnic group while the FACT from the Gorane ethnic group.

The Zaghawa people, also called Beri or Zakhawa, are a Sahelian Muslim ethnic group that mainly resides in southern Libya, eastern Chad, and western Sudan, including Darfur. They are nomadic shepherds and make much of their livelihood by raising cattle, camels and a particular breed of sheep called Zaghawa by the Arabs.

The Gorane live mainly in Chad in the Sahara desert. This people is included in all the inhabitants of the Tibesti massif and its surroundings, all its peoples are called “Toubous”. Strong Gorane communities are based in Nigeria, Niger, Libya and Sudan.

The Zaghawa is the native ethnicity of the late Warlord Idriss Deby Itno while the Gorane is the ethnicity of his rival and former president Hissène Habré. The two leaders and the two ethnic groups are linked by a history of alliances, betrayals, revenge, struggle for power that has lasted since 1978 when President Goukouni Ouedde was ousted.

Idriss Deby was Habré’s right-hand man until 1989 when he formed the armed group Movement Patriotic Salvation, dismissing Habré on December 2, 1990. Ironically, Hissène Habré had the satisfaction of seeing the funeral of his staunch enemy, albeit behind the prison bars in Senegal where in May 2016 he was convicted of having 40,000 people killed during his reign of terror and of promoting crimes against humanity including ethnic rape, sexual slavery.

After the dry refusal of FACT to the Gorane rebels, the Army General Staff has ensured that the rebels have already been located in the territory of Niger, in the border areas and of N’gourti and Ngueguimbi. The military junta seems intent on destroying the Gorane threat in Nigerian territory. The CMT officially requested the support of Niger in order to facilitate the capture of the FACT rebels defined as “war criminals, responsible for the deaths of dozens of Chadian soldiers, the first of which, Marshal of Chad, Idriss Deby Itno”.

The call for military cooperation to defeat the FACT rebels was also launched by the member countries of the G5 Shahel that fight Islamic terrorism in the region: Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger. “Chad therefore launches a vibrant appeal to all member countries of the G5 Sahel, for greater solidarity, coordination and sharing of efforts to put out of danger those who have now assassinated the Marshal of Chad and threatening the security of the entire Sahel”, said General Azem Bermandoa, spokesman for the Transitional Military Council.

The first concrete act of Mahamat Idriss Deby Hereditary President was the appointment as Prime Minister of the transitional government controlled by the CMT: Albert Pahimi Padacké. Prime Minister from 2016 to 2018, Padacké subsequently distanced himself from the regime by founding the RNDT-Le Réveil party (Rally of Chadian Nationalists and Democrats for Awakening).

Albert Pahimi Padacké is the right man to keep his promise to the West to open the transitional government to civilians. Padacké is a good connoisseur of politics and civil society associations. The right person to try to include civil society, Chadian political actors and international sympathy and support.

The military junta seems to be following in the footsteps of the Sudanese military junta after the ousting of the dictator Omar El Baschir. The Sudanese generals managed to ensure their political survival by forming a military junta that controls a government with strong participation of civilians. A ploy accepted by the United States and the EU in exchange for the new regime in Sudan to maintain its commitment to the fight against Islamic terrorism and illegal migratory flows to Europe.

Albert Pahimi Padacké will be the decoy that will allow Mahamat Idriss Deby to begin his adventure as a dictator, following in the footsteps of his father during his 31 years of absolute and undisputed power. Mahamat pleases the West but remains uncompromising in annihilating the FACT rebels. The reason is simple to understand: Prime Minister Padacké is easily controllable and virtually powerless. Mahadi Mahamat Ali, leader of FACT is a Gorane, guerrilla and therefore a potential danger for the Zaghawa regime. This is why Mhamat Idriss Deby asked that Mahadi’s head be served on a silver plate.